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The NFL odds have this game as an even "Pick'em", with a total of 49 points. Despite not playing as well this season, New England is still 3-0 SU, while the Falcons are struggling this season at 1-2 SU. Let's break down this match and see where the sports betting value lies.
While New England didn’t play great against Tampa, they played well enough to get a big win over a very dysfunctional Bucs team. Tom Brady was solid, but not great, throwing 25/36, with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was sacked three times by the Bucs, but overall the Pats played well enough to get the 23-3 victory.
While New England’s victory may have had more to do with how bad the Bucs are, the Falcons loss to the Dolphins was basically all Atlanta. The Falcons had the lead for almost the entire game, but a last second touchdown pass from Ryan Tannehill sealed the deal for the Dolphins, and moved the Falcons to 1-2 SU.
Atlanta was of course without their starting running back, Steven Jackson, however their defense is where they have the most concerns. With Brady coming into town this week, the Falcons’ secondary is going to be tested multiple times in this game. Miami only had 285 yards of total offense against a bad Falcons defense, so imagine what the Patriots are going to be able to do. Being in Atlanta will help the Falcons, but this spread is right where it needs to be this week. Atlanta will need almost everything to fall their way if they want a win in this game.
I recently released the Pick on the Spread~
The Sharp Pick
The Falcons are 13-2 SU in their last 15 home games dating back two seasons ago, while the Patriots are seemingly just as good on the road over the past few seasons. New England is 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 road games dating back over three seasons.
With Jackson down for the Falcons, and no running game visible for the Patriots, this could be a very high scoring game. We could see a lot of passing from both of these QBs, and it would not surprise me one bit to see this total go over.
My NFL pick for the total will be out within the next 24-48 hours, and seeing as neither team can run the ball very well, a pick on the over here in the early week NFL Odds may hold some value. At only 49 points, these two teams would only have to have three touchdowns a piece in this game, to go along with a few field goals to cash a ticket on the over.
However the spread is a bit too close to call at this point in the week. We will have to check the injury reports often this week, especially because this game could be the return of Rob Gronkowski to the Patriots. Gronk has missed the first three games of the season, but he was close to playing last week, which normally means another week and he should be ready to go by Sunday evening. Make sure you check on that a lot, because that could mean the difference between a Pats win or a Pats loss on the road here.
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