NFL Picks: Patriots vs. Falcons Betting the Spread

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, September 28, 2013 3:53 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 28, 2013 3:53 PM UTC

Sunday Night Football is going to be a barnburner this week when Tom Brady and the Patriots head into Atlanta to play the Falcons. Let's look at the odds for our Week 4 NFL picks.

The NFL Odds for this game favor the Falcons at -2, with a total of 49 ½. I’ve already given my pick on the total, now it’s time for my spread pick.

Defense wins 

With two high powered offenses, even if they are a little banged up, the defenses for these two teams are going to be who decides the victor. The Falcons’ defense has had a rough go of it recently, losing several key members from their front seven for the season. While their rushing defense hasn’t been hurt just yet, their pass defense has been in real trouble this season. 

Asante Samuel is playing pretty well, but other than him, the Falcons secondary is in disarray. They have given up nearly 300 yards passing per game through three games, and if they can’t play better here at home, Tom Brady is going to eat them alive, even if he is down some of his best receivers. 

On the Patriots’ side, their problems on defense have been on the ground, not through the air. The Patriots’ secondary is playing outstanding right now, giving up less than 200 yards passing per game through three games. Their problems are giving up yards on the ground. Teams so far have been successful running the ball against New England, and not only have they been good at it, but they have kept Brady off the field which makes it twice as effective. 

However even though the Patriots have been giving up yards on the ground, with Steven Jackson missing this game, Atlanta is going to have some trouble running the ball. Even though Jaquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling played well against the Dolphins this past week, if the Patriots gain a lead in this game, the Falcons will not be able to deploy their rushing attack very much. That could mean the difference in what should be a very close and competitive game on Sunday evening. 

Check out my Betting the Total pick for this game~

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The Sharp Pick 

Brady has been very good against the Falcons through his career. The Pats have won their last three games against Atlanta, and even though this one is on the road, Brady has the ability to beat the Falcons on the road. The Pats are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 road games, and with the Falcons’ defense giving up a lot of yards through the air, I think the Pats will be able to cover in this one, and very well could upset here.

The Pats have won their last five road games in a row, and the Falcons are only 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Atlanta is sometimes very overvalued at home, and I think this may be another one of those instances. The Falcons are only 1-2 ATS this season also, and even though both of their losses were road games, I think they lose their first game ATS at home on Sunday night. Take the two points with the Pats for your NFL picks, and maybe even a money line bet as well, because an upset is possible here with all of the Falcons’ injuries.

My Pick: Patriots +2 Bet365

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