NFL Picks Patriots vs. Broncos: What a Difference Just a Year Makes

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 3:07 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 3:07 PM GMT

Our NFL capper examines the HUGE Sunday night matchup between New England & Denver. Go inside to read this our betting preview & can't miss NFL pick on the total.

Sunday Night NFL Sparkling AFC Matchup
The Broncos (8-2) and Patriots (10-0) will meet in the Sunday night nationally televised game on NBC. The opening kickoff at Mile High Stadium in Denver is slated for 8:30 PM ET. Early (11/24) NFL betting odds at 5Dimes has New England as a 3.0 point favorite, and the total is 44.5. These non-division foes have met six times since 2011, and two of those games occurred in the playoffs. Last year’s lone meeting came during the regular season at New England, and the Patriots came away with a convincing 43-21 win as a 3.0 point underdog. New England has won five of those six aforementioned games against Denver.

 

Staying Perfect
The New England Patriots are coming off a 20-13 home win on Monday night against Buffalo. You can argue the point that it may have been their worst performance this season, but they remain unbeaten nonetheless. The Patriots defense once again turned in a superb performance, and was instrumental in overcoming a rare off day by their offense.  It was the third time in four games that New England went under the total. During those four contests, they allowed just an average of just 14.0 points per game. New England is first in the NFL scoring defense category at 18.2 points per game.  

 

Patriots Offense currently a Mash Unit
The Patriots offensive skill position players have suffered numerous inuries over the past few weeks. Starting running back Dion Lewis was lost for the year with a knee injury. It’s also possible they’ll be without wide receivers Julian Edelman (foot), Danny Amendola (knee), Keyshawn Martin (hamstring), and Aaron Dobson on Sunday. The Patriots offense was held to 12 points and 56 yards below their season averages in Monday’s win.

 

Denver Defense continuing to Shine
Who would’ve thought that we’d be talking about an 8-2 Denver team at this juncture, and claim their defense was its strong suit? Well that’s certainly been the case. The Broncos stop unit is second in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game, and first in total defense by allowing just 284.3 yards per contest. Denver has gone under the total in all four home games this season, and there was a combined average of only 39.0 points scored per contest.

 

Final Analysis and Pick
Denver will be without Peyton Manning for the second consecutive game while he recovers from a foot injury. The Patriots need to establish some semblance of a running game, in order to overcompensate for a vast amount of injuries to their wide receiver corp. If this were a year ago at this time, I may have been committed to an institution by predicting a low scoring game between these two teams. However, this year is a different story, and with all things considered, that’s exactly the direction I’m heading for one of my NFL picks this week.

NFL Pick: Play on under the total of 44.5 at 5Dimes

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