NFL Picks: Parlay Redskins -3 ½ & 'Under' 46 Thursday Night

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 25, 2014 4:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 4:28 PM UTC

So far through three Thursday night games, I have a 2-1 parlay record, and if you would have wagered two units each week on my NFL parlays, you’d be up over 8 ½ units through three weeks. After a bounce back win with last week's free picks, let’s try and make it two in a row. 

Giants vs. Redskins Spread Pick
Tonight’s NFL Odds have the Redskins as -3 ½ favorites, and after last week’s performance by Kirk Cousins, the Skins are looking like they could be the play. However don’t overestimate the Skins just yet. They still lost last week despite the amazing play from Cousins, and they are still playing on a short week, which throws several wrenches into this game. To start, the Eagles’ defense is not great, especially against the pass, and although they haven’t shown it just yet this season, the Giants’ defense and secondary are both very good. Last week the Giants intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick three times, and they could easily do the same this week to Cousins.

However even though the Giants pose a threat to the Skins, I think Washington is the play here. Even at NFL odds of -3 ½, which can be a tricky number, the Redskins have an advantage at almost every position. Their offense is more reliable with Cousins now under center, and their running game is just as good with Alfred Morris. The defense battle is a wash, but either way I’m going with the Skins. In their last five games as -3 ½ to -10 favorites, the Skins are 4-1 ATS, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. The Giants on the other hand are 3-7 ATS and SU in their last ten games following a SU win, and dating back to last September, the Giants have only won one game ATS in the month, which was last week.


Giants vs. Redskins Total Pick
This week’s NFL Odds’ total comes in around 46 points, and despite the game being only hours away, the total has still not settled. There are still sportsbooks that have the number at 46 points, while around half of the shops have the total sitting at 45 ½. Even though the over has cashed in two of the first three Thursday night games, the first game of the season doesn’t count because technically the teams weren’t playing on a short week, and the last one was a one sided blowout where the Bucs didn’t score until the fourth quarter. These games are sometimes much lower scoring than people project. In fact last season, 11 teams failed to score more than 21 points in a game on a Thursday night, and the odds of one or both of these teams playing worse on offense this week are high. I don’t think either team can come back and have another 30+ point night against one another on Thursday night, so take the under and add it to your NFL Picks. Let’s see if we can get above ten units won to start the season!

My Pick: 2-team parlay Redskins -3 ½ & UNDER 46

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