NFL Picks: Palmer's Absense To Influence TNF Team Props

Arizona Cardinals players during practice

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, October 6, 2016 5:07 PM GMT

We crushed another two team props to go 4-0 in that department to close out last week! Now Week 5 is here and I am back with a couple of winning team props picks for this Thursday Night Football showdown. 

 Time Of First Score O/U 6:30

We cashed this prop on Monday night with some ease and I am hoping to do the same here tonight, this time from BetOnline, now offering 50% free play bonus. While the Niners’ offense hasn’t been anywhere close to good outside of Carlos Hyde, the Cardinals are going to be starting Drew Stanton in this road game, which makes for a tough scoring environment, especially on a short week.

Outside of the high-scoring Bills and Jets game we’ve had on TNF, the others have been pretty low scoring. We could be seeing the start of a shift to lower scoring TNF games, which would mean the over on this one has some value.

With the way that Carson Palmer has been playing, Stanton may be an upgrade at quarterback. However, the Niners’ defense has been better than expected and at home they should be ramped up enough to slow down the Stanton-led Cardinals offense. Stanton has now had much starting experience, but the experience he does have on the road is not good. He has only three touchdowns compared to nine picks in his time playing on the road. For his career, Stanton is only averaging 4.69 adjusted yards per pass attempt on the road, so don’t expect a fast start from either team. Look for the first score to come sometime after the first 6:30 for your Thursday night football 5 prop picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 6:30 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

O/U 4.5 Touchdowns

Considering this is a divisional game with the Cardinals missing their starting quarterback, the likelihood of there being a ton of touchdowns in this one is small. The last time these two teams played one another last season, the final score was 19-13. That was with Palmer under center and the Niners’ defense much worse.

In fact, if it wasn’t for a 47-7 beat down from the Cardinals last season in Arizona, three of the last four times these teams have met over the last two seasons, the total has gone under.

Even with some of the defensive injuries heading into this game for both teams, the under still looks like the play at 4 ½ touchdowns. These two teams are averaging a combined 16.5 points per game in their last two games and the under has cashed in their last few meetings in a row when playing from San Francisco.

I expect to see a hard-hitting divisional game in this one, despite all the injuries. On the short week and with the better offense playing without their starting quarterback, this one might not be the best game to watch. With +120 NFL Odds for the under, it’s a great value tonight!

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 4.5 TDs (+120) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Season Team Props Record: 17-8