NFL Picks: Packers vs. Vikings Opening Odds & Winning ATS Pick

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 5:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 5:57 PM UTC

The Green Bay Packers honked another one last week, while the Minnesota Vikings just keep beating the football odds. Who will prevail when they meet this Sunday with our NFL picks?

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 15: 38-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-28 Total
The wheels on the bus go 'round and 'round – until they fall off. The Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) find themselves in the ditch after losing their third straight game, dropping an 18-16 decision to the Detroit Lions (+10.5 away) of all people. That's a tasty piece of cheddar right there. All those high rollers who came out and bet big on the Packers? Let's hope they were exercising sound bankroll management principles.

Meanwhile, good gravy, the Minnesota Vikings (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) just don't understand how bad they're supposed to be. On Sunday, they ran the ball right through the heart of the Oakland Raiders, winning 30-14 as 3-point road dogs to take over first place in the NFC North. Now the Vikes are 1-point home faves on the NFL odds board for Sunday's matchup (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) in Minneapolis. The early sharp pick? Green Bay, with a slight lean on our consensus reports.

AP Style
Before we go any further, it is Week 11, and it is an outdoor game in Minnesota, so we have to drop tools until we get the weather report. Here is is: mostly sunny with just a 10-percent chance of rain at kick-off. Temperatures will be close to the freezing mark, but that shouldn't put too much of a damper on things. We can proceed as normal with our NFL picks.

What would we normally do here, though? The Packers are eminently fadeworthy at this point, but aren't the Vikings supposed to be overvalued? Adrian Peterson and his 203 rushing yards against Oakland care to differ. To be fair, 80 of those yards (and his touchdown) came on one play in the last two minutes, with the game already out of reach for the Raiders. And Minnesota did get a 93-yard kick-off return from Cordarrelle Patterson to take the lead going into the dressing room.


Jared's Rib
We could continue down this path and bicker some more about Minnesota's efficiency ratings, but our primary focus is on the Packers. They've got problems. All those injuries on the offensive line proved fatal against the Lions, who sacked Aaron Rodgers three times and held Green Bay to 47 yards rushing. Then they lost another lineman when LT David Bakhtiari (knee) was carted off in the fourth quarter.

But wait, there's more. WR Jared Abbrederis had to leave the Detroit game with a rib cage injury, and RB Eddie Lacy (groin) didn't play at all. There's only so much Rodgers can do with the team he's surrounded with at the moment; you could see his frustration building as things fell apart against the Lions. We're going to keep kicking that Havarti while it's down.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Vikings PK at 5Dimes

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