NFL Picks: Packers vs. Vikings Opening Odds Report

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 3:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2013 3:39 PM UTC

We preview the opening NFL odds for the Week 8 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, as we aim to hunt down the best betting value on offer. Is there any early value on offer for NFL bettors?

Week 8 brings what should have been a great division matchup, but it looks more and more like the Packers and Vikings will be a blow out game. The Vikings come off of a short week to host the Packers, and Minnesota is a +9 ½ home underdog, with NFL odds offering a total of 46 ½. Will Josh Freeman and the Vikings turn things around against a better defense than the Giants, or will the Packers continue their dominance over bad teams?

For more information on this week's games, read our Daily NFL Week 8 Betting Odds Report!

Packed Infirmary

The Packers’ list of injured players got longer this past week. Jermichael Finley was concussed and has a bruised spine after a bad hit in the Packers’ game against Cleveland. Already out for the rest of the regular season is Randall Cobb, and James Jones also missed this past week with a knee injury.

Finley is going to be lucky to play football again this season, let alone next week, and it takes another hit on the Packers’ offense. Some would argue that it doesn’t matter too much who is catching the ball from Aaron Rodgers, and I tend to agree for the most part. The Packers have no need to rush Jones back this week against the soft Vikings secondary, and even though they are on the road, the Packers can let their defense do the talking. 

Green Bay has held their last three opponents under 20 points for the game, and so far through six games this season, the Packers are 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. The Packers are going to do exactly what the Giants did this past Monday night, they will crowd the box to stop Adrian Peterson and make Josh Freeman throw the ball. Freeman had over 30 incompletions this past Monday, and you can bet a lot more of those should have been picked off.

Also Check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 8 Value Picks

NFL Picks: Week 8 Fades & Games to Avoid

ATS Trends 

The Packers have been overvalued on the road recently, as they are only 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five road games (1-2 SU this season). However Green Bay owns the Vikings. The Packers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall against the Vikings, and they are 5-2 ATS during that same stretch. 

Last season the Vikings did beat the Packers in the final game of the regular season, however Green Bay did not put forth a full effort in that game, as their playoff fate was already sealed at that point. However with that win, the Vikings are 3-1 ATS in their last four home games against the Packers. This is big despite the fact that the Packers have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four overall games between these two, the Week 17 loss in 2012 being their only loss.

With Josh Freeman under center for the Vikings, it looks as hopeless as it did with Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel. The fact of the matter is the Vikings have a pretty solid team, but their quarterback play is going to be the death of them, and maybe even Leslie Frazier by the time it’s all said and done.

Make sure you check back later in the week for my NFL picks on the total and spread for this one!
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