NFL Picks: Packers vs. Vikings Betting the Total

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, October 23, 2013 5:13 PM GMT

The Sunday night game should be an interesting NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings this week from Minnesota.


The NFL Odds are largely in favor of the Packers at -10 on the road, however for this piece we are discussing the total, which is sitting at 46 ½. Will the Vikings offense come back alive this week? I have some new breaking information that goes way from some of the things I talked about in my video, so make sure you read all the way through!

Freeman out, Ponder in

Earlier in the week, the Vikings came out and stated that even after his horrific performance on Monday night, Josh Freeman would still start this game against the Packers. However this afternoon, word out of Minnesota is that Freeman actually suffered a concussion, and he is out for this game against the Packers.

Now the Vikings are forced to go back to Christian Ponder, who probably should have saw some playing time this past Monday. He gets a rare chance to resurrect his status with the team some this week, and even though the Packers’ defense is very good, it is beatable on the back end.

The Vikings will go back to pounding the ball with Adrian Peterson in this game regardless of how many defenders the Packers leave in the box. Ponder has the ability to manage the game enough to score some points this week, and even with how bad the Vikings’ offense has been, they can score into the teens at home this week. 

Let's look at the Opening Betting Odds for the Packers vs. Vikings~

Down, but not out 

The Packers are really banged up right now, however even without Jermichael Finley, possibly James Jones and Randall Cobb, the Packers should still be able to roll against the very bad Vikings’ defense. Minnesota’s defense has been awful this season, giving up almost 300 yards per game through the air, and another 100 on the ground. 

Aaron Rodgers should have no problem getting the ball to his receivers, and as long as they catch the ball, this should be a high scoring game for Green Bay. The Packers should have 30 points in this game if not more, and if that happens, the over should be the play of the night. 

See Jason Lake's Packers vs. Vikings Preview~

[gameodds]16/226986/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick

The Vikings cashed the under for the first time this past week, and so far this season they are 5-1 cashing the over. However it isn’t because of their offense, it’s because of their lack of defense. Before this past Monday night, the Vikings were giving up over 31 points per game to their opponents. Even if you ass in the game against the Giants, they are still giving up 30 points per game this season.

Three of the last five, seven of the last ten and eight of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and in five of these two team’s last six games from Minnesota, the total has gone over as well. To top it all off, six of the last seven home games for the Vikings have gone over the total. 

I’m not concerned with Ponder starting, because the Vikings’ defense is going to help us cover the over for our NFL picks here. 46 ½ is too low even with all of the Packers’ injuries. It doesn’t matter who Rodgers throws to in this game, because he could probably get 35-40 points himself. 

My Pick: ‘Over’ 46 ½ @ William Hill