NFL Picks: Packers vs. Vikings Betting the Spread

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, October 26, 2013 6:01 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 26, 2013 6:01 PM UTC

The final game of Sunday will be an NFC North divisional battle between the Vikings and Packers, and the NFL Odds have Green Bay anywhere from -8 to -10 road favorites.

I have already given my NFL pick on the total for this one, and I think I have uncovered some more value with the spread.

QB Roulette

The Vikings are playing the quarterback carrousel this season, and are now back all the way to Christian Ponder, who started this whole mess. Even though I don’t think it will be pretty, Ponder has a chance to give himself some better footing this week. Josh Freeman did not play well last week and now reportedly has concussion symptoms (I am speculative of this). Before all of this craziness started, Ponder was benched for Matt Cassel, who has basically become the third wheel in this mess, although he will backup Ponder this Sunday night. 

Check out the full NFL Odds Rundown for Week 8~

With all of this shuffling going on under center for Minnesota, I find it hard to believe that any of the Vikings’ receivers have generated any chemistry on offense, (as we saw last week with Freeman) and possibly the greatest running back of all time is being wasted at the end of his prime because of lousy management. If the Packers stop Adrian Peterson, they stop the Vikings due their lack of a QB. The Vikings haven’t had a quarterback since Brett Favre, and they are going up against the guy who has pretty successfully replaced the aforementioned Favre. 

Even with all of the injuries for the Packers, including James Jones, Clay Matthews and others, they still have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. I don’t think it matters too much whom Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball to. He still has his young stud running back and he has Jordy Nelson and the young Jarrett Boykin playing well at WR. After being whittled down to -8 in the NFL Odds, I am comfortable laying points on the road with Green Bay. 


The Sharp Pick

The Packers are going to sell out to stop Peterson in this one, and with how well Green Bay is playing against the run this season, I think they can do it. Peterson ran for only 28 yards against a sad Giant run defense, and only 62 the week before. Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL through seven weeks against the run, giving up an average of only 79 yards rushing per game. The lack of Matthews will hurt that, but as long as Brad Jones and/or Nick Perry are able to go in this one, it doesn’t hurt against the Vikings.

Green Bay is 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall against the Vikings, and in those same seven games, they are 5-2 ATS. Even though Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in their last four home games against the Packers, they are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten games as home underdogs.

Rodgers and the Packers will likely get the lead early against the Vikings’ 29th ranked pass defense, and from there, Minnesota doesn’t have enough under center to keep up with Rodgers, even though the Vikings are at home. If I ranked every team in the NFL, the team that would be right above the Bucs and the Jags in 30th is the Vikings this season. Minnesota has given up a total of 181 points so far through six games, and the only way Rodgers and the Packers don’t get 30 or more points is by another devastating injury for the offense (God forbid). I’m laying the -8 for my NFL picks at Bookmaker or Heritage.

My Pick: Packers -8 Bet365

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