NFL Picks: Packers vs. Seahawks Top Prop Betting Options

Kevin Stott

Friday, January 16, 2015 4:39 PM GMT

The Super Bowl champion Seahawks host the Packers at CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Sunday in the NFC Championship game in Seattle and there are a number of proposition bets worth examining.

 

Introduction
The stage has been set and the two teams most thought would be meeting in the NFC Championship game to settle things indeed are as the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks host the Green Bay Packers at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET/12:05 p.m. PT) in a game that should have a massive betting handle and which will be watched by tens of millions. The winner of this game will be the first team to punch its ticket to Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona on February 1 and will face the winner of Sunday’s second game in Foxboro, the AFC Championship.


Odds makers here at the world’s biggest sports book, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, has the host Seahawks as 7-point favorites on their NFL odds. with the Total at 46½. And the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Director Jay Kornegay and his incredible staff have put together some interesting proposition bets for the game so lets take a look at some of the more common and somewhat specific ones as well as make some picks where that perceived value seems to lie.


Most of the NFL picks here in this space are being made in this conference title game will be coming from a perspective where Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (calf) has been suffering a semi-serious injury and is not even close to himself. And the Seattle Seahawks on the road in the playoffs are the wrong team to be playing when you’re not even close to 100%. Piranhas and sharks always like to go for the wounded, bubba.


Some Interesting Proposition Bets Odds
Will Either Team Score Three Straight Times? Yes -185, No +165; First Score Of The Game Will Be: TD -160, Any Other Score +140; Total TD Passes By Aaron Rodgers 2 Under -140; Total Rushing Yards Eddie Lacy 60½; Total Receiving Yards Jordy Nelson 80½; Will Jordy Nelson Score A TD? No -120; Total Receiving Yards Randall Cobb 68½; Total Completions Russell Wilson 18; Total TD Passes By Russell Wilson 1½; Total Receiving Yards Doug Baldwin 57½; Will Both Teams Make A 33 Yard Or Longer FG? No -185; Shortest TD Of Game (Yard line) 1½ Under -125; Largest Lead Of The Game By Either Team 16½; Will Either Team Score In The Final 2 Minutes Of The First Half? Yes -230; Total QB Sacks By Both Teams 4½; and, Seattle Seahawks Team Total Points 27. 


Total Gross Passing Yards By Aaron Rodgers: 265½ Under -110
This particular pick, the Under 265½ (gross) Passing Yards by Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, gets its muscle from the power of the Seattle Seahawks overwhelming and #1 NFL overall scoring and Passing (185.6 ypg) defense and its great DBs like Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Byron Maxwell and Kam Chancellor. Toss in Rodgers (341/520, 4,381 yards, 38 TDs, 65.6%, 8.43 yards per pass) highly publicized calf injury and the trouble he displayed in his teams last two games—despite the results—and there is a some potential that the 31-year-old California product might not make it the entire 60 minutes here. 


Total Rushing Yards By Russell Wilson: 44½ Over -110
It’s simple. The kid can run. Especially for an NFL QB. Decent 4.55 speed in the 40. And he likes to rush the ball and will be expected to do so here against Green Bay. When these two teams  met back in Week 1 here in Seattle, Wilson (118 rushes, 848 yards, 6 TDs, 7.2 ypc) only rushed 7 times for 29 yards (4.1 ypc; Long: 13), but the Seahawks had a 10-point lead at halftime (17-10) a 12-point lead after three quarters (22-10) and scored on the first play of the fourth quarter to take a 20-point lead so Wilson  (285/452, 3,475 yards, 20 TDs, 63.1% completions, 7.7 yards per pass) never really had to run. Here, he’ll possibly have to and this bet could be won with one long scramble which would presumably end in the end zone. Never underestimate Russell Wilson. And always trust him. The Packers defense is much improved but Wilson could easily get 45 or more yards both on intentional play calls from scrimmage and from scrambles up-field when other plays break down. I really like this one.


Will Marshawn Lynch Score A Touchdown? Yes -155
It’s almost like having to feed your pet tiger a sirloin steak because he’s been such a good boy. When Marshawn Lynch is on, and his head is in the game, he is often unstoppable. And he’s definitely in that beast-mode groove right now. The Seahawks RB has rushed 280 times for 1,306 yards and 13 TDs and when these two met in Week 1, Lynch (20 carries, 110 yards) scored 2 TDs. And when you’re close to the goal line, you give it to Marshawn (4.7 ypc) and there’s probably not too much Green Bay will be able to do about that. It’s no coincidence that Seattle’s 7-game unbeaten SU and ATS streak at the perfect time in the NFL season—when Seattle was 6-4—started around the time Lynch shifted into his maximum mode as a football player.

Share your thoughts on Wilson & Lynch's roles in this game


Green Bay Packers Team Total Points Under 19½ -110
Green Bay only scored 18 points—2 TDs and 1 FG, a 2-point conversion attempt failed—when these two met in Week 1 and Seattle is actually playing better defense now than they were back then. That swarming, scary stuff the Baltimore Ravens played in the Nineties and the Chicago Bears played in the Eighties. The Seahawks (25-2 SU L27 Home) have allowed just 53 points in this 7-game win streak (7.57 ppg) and will be intent on rising to the occasion, helping their team make its second straight Super Bowl—after never being there before—and strutting its blue, green and silver stuff in front of the Guinness Book Of Damn Records-loud home crowd it Seattle. It’s sometimes hard to score when your QB is limping like a gunslinger who has been wounded in an old Western and playing in a hostile place where they measure the raucous and loving home crowd on the Richter scale.

NFC Championship Picks: Total Rushing Yards Russell Wilson Over 44½ -110, Will Marshawn Lynch Score a Touchdown? Yes -155, Total Gross Passing Yards Aaron Rodgers Under 265½ -110, Green Bay Packers Team Total Points Under 19½ -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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