NFL Picks: Packers vs. Lions Week 13

Joe Freda

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 3:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2013 3:45 PM UTC

Free NFL picks for the Thanksgiving day matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Will the Lions be able to cover a six point favorites?

The Detroit Lions picked up a second straight loss in Sunday’s 24-21 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, failing to cash as 7 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Jim Schwartz’ squad remains at Ford Field for Thursday’s NFL betting against the Green Bay Packers.

Be sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 13 Fades & Games to Avoid

NFL Picks: Week 13 Value Picks

Lions, Stafford fall to Bucs

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford tossed four interceptions to Tampa Bay’s defenders, while connecting 26-of-46 attempts. The two-time Pro Bowler found wide out Nate Burleson for one of his three touchdowns through the air, while mate Calvin Johnson notched seven catches for 115 yards.

Detroit’s trio of scores all came in trips to the red zone, with Stafford guiding the offense to 25 first downs in its 33 minutes of possession. Lions running back Reggie Bush notched a combined 100 yards of rushing and receiving, while mate Kris Durham coughed up one fumble.

The duel’s combined 45 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 48 ½, making the UNDER 2-1 in the Lions’ last three weeks of action. Detroit’s Ezekiel Ansah returned from an ankle injury to log two of his side’s four sacks, while he and his crew held the Bucs to 229 total yards.

Packers, Flynn tie Vikings 

Green Bay saw action on the same card, coming away with a 26-26 tie as 5 ½-point home ‘chalk’ against the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers surged for 16 unanswered points in the last 12 minutes of regulation, while the rivals exchanged field goals in overtime.

Green Bay’s Matt Flynn threw for 218 yards under center, reaching wide out Jarrett Boykin for his sole touchdown through the air. Packers running back Eddie Lacy broke the century mark for the third time in seven games, taking in one score as part of 110 rushing yards. 

The Packers’ defense put in 41 minutes on the gridiron, with linebacker A.J. Hawk logging a team-high nine tackles. Hawk added one of his squad’s six sacks, while the matchup’s 52 points jumped OVER the ‘total’ of 44 ½.

NFL Picks: Week 13 Betting Odds Report

Back the Lions as ‘chalk’

NFL odds first opened Detroit as a six-point favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 50. Packers starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers is expected to miss the affair, continuing to recover from his broken collarbone injury.

I am laying the points with the Lions in this spot, adding this ‘chalk’ play to Thursday’s NFL picks

Detroit should come in fuming after Sunday’s upset loss, while set to air it out with their passing game still ranked third in the league (308.4 YPG). The Lions also look for revenge after dropping last month’s 22-9 defeat to Green Bay, reaching the red zone just once en route to giving up five sacks. 

Green Bay has continued to slide without Rodgers at the helm, while logging a 0-2 spread record in its pair of spots as a road dog. The Packers were outscored by a combined 61-41 in trips against the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants, while the short rest should be a factor after this past weekend’s grueling overtime affair.

Look for Flynn to struggle in this marquee spot, while the Lions pick apart the Packers defense – who have surrendered 276.8 YPG through the air. Detroit has hung 30 PPG on the board at Ford Field, with some high octane coming again en route to a cashed ticket. 

Free NFL Pick:  Detroit Lions -6 at Bet365


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