NFL Picks: Packers vs. Giants

Swinging Johnson

Friday, November 15, 2013 6:38 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 15, 2013 6:38 PM GMT

The Packers are reeling from injuries while the resurgent Giants are reeling off victories but let's preview this game and find out where the value lies in the NFL picks between Green Bay and Big Blue.


Green Bay Packers (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

If you've ever wondered why NFL executives drool all over themselves when the number one pick in the draft is a quarterback just take a look at what's happened in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers goes down and the entire franchise follows suit. While the Packers cried that it couldn't get much worse, it certainly did last week when their backup quarterback Seneca Wallace limped off the field with a groin injury. And to rub some salt into the wound, along with a touch of vinegar and several crushed jalapenos, their offensive line is now in shambles with injuries sustained by center Evan Dietrich-Smith and right tackle Don Barclay last week.

So now it falls upon the young shoulders of the undrafted third-stringer out of Wisconsin, Scott Tolzien. Tolzien acquitted himself fairly well in relief of Wallace when he completed 24 of 39 passes, 280 yards and one touchdown. However, he did toss a pair of picks in the Packers 27-13 loss to the Eagles. It was the second consecutive loss for Green Bay and they will be entering new territory if they lose to New York on Sunday as they have not lost three in a row since the 2008 season. 

New York Giants (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

These are heady times for the New York Football Giants after losing their first six games of the season they have rebounded with three consecutive victories. Their latest trip to the winner's circle was a 24-20 victory over the Oakland Raiders, however their backers could not have been celebrating as they failed to cover the seven point impost in NFL odds. Nevertheless, New York had covered in their three previous games including a 27-21 loss in Chicago where the oddsmakers gave them a generous 9 ½ point head start.

The Giants have gotten back on track by relying less on the Super Bowl arm of Eli Manning and more on the running game. They have handed the ball off more than 30 times in each of their games during this current win streak. After being activated from the PUP list Andre Brown suited up and simply took over the starting role at running back by gaining 115 yards and one TD in his first game back. There is no doubt he will be getting a heavy workload against a Packers rushing defense that is pedestrian at best, while taking some of the pressure off Manning who has a league leading 16 pass interceptions.

[gameodds]16/227028/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Free Pick:

The sportsbooks for this matchup have the Giants as favorites against a team that was universally believed to be a Super Bowl contender as little as three weeks ago. But the Packers are banged up and will be focusing much more on the prodigious rushing skills of former Alabama star Eddie Lacy to chew the clock and move the chains. 

On the other side you will see a similar tact taken by the Giants who are no doubt cognizant that their winning streak began when they became multidimensional and took the heat off Eli Manning. So that means we've got a case of ground and pound for both offenses, although Manning is very much a threat to go deep with a healthy arsenal of weapons at his disposal if the Packers begin to key heavily on the run.

I am leaning slightly towards the Giants but more towards the Under in this game. Bet365.com is dealing the Giants at -4 ½, however if you're inclined to back the Pack might I suggest you open an account with WilliamHill.com who is hanging a line of Giants -6. 

The play here is Under 43 at WilliamHill.com

comment here