NFL Picks: Packers vs. 49ers Offers Best Value in Week 1

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, September 4, 2013 6:12 PM GMT

Jeff Grant has gone over all of the Week 1 odds, but one game stands out above the rest when it comes to NFL betting value. Find out why he is looking at the matchup between the Packers and the 49ers this weekend.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed great success as a road underdog in this career, as he prepares to take on the San Francisco 49ers Sunday.

Let’s take a closer look at the NFL odds for this conference matchup at Candlestick Park, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.

The NFL Season is upon us. Check out our Week 1 Opening Odds Report!

Revenge

Green Bay is certainly out for revenge after losing both meetings with the San Francisco 49ers a season ago, which included a 45-31 setback as three-point road underdogs in the divisional round of the playoffs.

NFL handicappers will find that the Packers are 2-0 SUATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER cashing in both of those opportunities.

Potential letdown

San Francisco may suffer a bit of a letdown coming into this season, as the franchise has lost in the Super Bowl and NFC championship game in the last two years.  

It’s important to point out that the franchise is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS under third-year head coach Jim Harbaugh in the month of September.

Rodgers 

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has compiled a 109.4 passer rating in three career regular-season starts against the 49ers, as he looks to improve upon his 10-6 ATS mark as a road underdog in his career. 

Green Bay has covered the number in five of its last six season openers—a trend that may continue after spending the entire offseason learning how to stop San Francisco’s read option.

Kaepernick

There’s no doubt that 49ers signal-caller Colin Kaepernick is one of the more exciting offensive players in the NFL, but he’ll start his third year in the league without two of his top three starters from 2012.

Wide receiver Michael Crabtree is out with injury, while No. 2 tight end Delanie Walker left the team during free agency.

[gameodds]16/226879/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Packers with their NFL picks, as they’ve gone 9-3-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series.

San Francisco landed in a favorable situational spot last year in hosting Green Bay in the postseason, but won’t enjoy that type of luxury Sunday.

NFL Pick:  Green Bay Packers +4.5