NFL Picks: Packers' Revenge a Key Factor When Betting Against Seahawks

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 17, 2015 7:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015 7:48 PM UTC

It's time to kick the Seattle Seahawks while they're down. The Green Bay Packers are the fashionable NFL pick for the latest episode of Sunday Night Football.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 16: 4-3 ATS; 2-2 Total

The Green Bay Packers have had just about enough of the Seattle Seahawks and their shenanigans. Three years ago, the replacement refs famously handed Seattle (+3) a 14-12 victory. Last year, the Seahawks (–4.5) hammered Green Bay 36-16 to open the regular season, then they mounted a ridiculous comeback to down the Packers 28-22 in the NFC Championship Game. But hey, at least Green Bay (+8.5) covered.

All three of those games were in Seattle. This Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC), they'll meet at Lambeau Field, and you'd better believe the Packers are geared up for this one. They opened as 3.5-point favorites; as we go to press, they're still at -3.5 after touching -4 on the NFL odds week. Our expanded consensus reports show over 53 percent support for Green Bay, but interestingly enough, 62 percent of the money is on Seattle.


Harvard Law
We're often told not to overreact to the events of Week 1, but as you may recall from our Week 2 betting trends, bettors tend to under-react in some of these situations. Having said that, the fine folks at the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective recently showed that favorites who lose in Week 1 by three points or fewer cash in about 54-55 percent of the time in Week 2.

That's the bucket the Seahawks find themselves in. They were 3.5-point road faves when they lost 34-31 in overtime to the St. Louis Rams. Seattle came achingly close to getting the win in the late stages after a furious fourth-quarter rally, but in a cruel twist of fate, Marshawn Lynch was stuffed on 4th-and-1 at the St. Louis 42-yard line to end the game. Can we leave that play call at Super Bowl XLIX alone now?


Shopping for Kam
We appreciate the big brains at Harvard, but there's no way we can recommend Seattle in this matchup. Between the downgrade on the offensive line – a line which was already an issue last year, before center Max Unger was traded – and the contract holdout of safety Kam Chancellor, these are not your slightly older brother's Seahawks. This is a “sell high” opportunity if there ever was one.

However, given the action thus far, and the point spread being over a field goal, our NFL pick is very small bet on the Packers. There's also some troubling news coming out of Green Bay this morning; RT Bryan Bulaga suffered an undisclosed injury at practice, and TE Richard Rodgers had to leave the field with what appears to be a sore neck. The Packers also had to put starting LB Sam Barrington (foot) on injured reserve earlier this week. Keep an eye on the injury reports for more information – if this helps knock Green Bay down to –3 before the public comes in on the Packers, all the better.

NFL Pick: Packers -3.5 at BookMaker

comment here