NFL Picks 'Over' 43.5 for Lions vs. Vikings Week 6

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, October 12, 2014 12:25 PM GMT

After the NFL odds were very late coming out for this game, we finally have some lines. Right now sportsbooks have the Vikings as -1 favorites on Sunday, with a total of 43 ½. Which one of these teams is going to be a good add to your NFL picks?

Teddy’s Back, Megatron Is Not
The reason the NFL odds were so late coming out for this game was because of the injury to the Vikings’ rookie, Teddy Bridgewater. However word came out yesterday that he is going to start after hurting his ankle, which has given the Vikings some hope. In fact because of some other injury news, the Vikings are actually favored in this game.

Bridgewater does give the Vikings infinite amounts of upside in this game, especially due to the Lions’ injury concerns. Reggie Bush looks like he will miss this game after getting hurt last week, and Calvin Johnson is also looking doubtful after he had to come out of last week’s game for the Lions. This leaves Matthew Stafford very little to work with, and it limits the Lions’ offense a ton. Right now they are going to have to rely on Joique Bell to run the ball after he is just coming back from a concussion, and really all they have outside of Megatron in the passing game is Golden Tate.

Tate played well last week with Johnson out of the picture, but even against the spotty pass defense of the Vikings, I don’t know if he will be enough to keep the Lions in contention. Bridgewater has some options to go to in the passing game, and even with their defense playing lights out right now, if the offense isn’t giving them a chance to win the game, the Lions are not going to be able to keep up on the road.

 

The Sharp Pick
However instead of wasting your time on a spread bet for this game, the total is looking like a much better option. Like I mentioned above, because of their conceived offense limitations on Sunday, the Lions’ defense might not play as well as they have been. Without playing with the lead, they are not going to be able to rush the passer as much, especially because Bridgewater is mobile and can hurt them outside of the pocket. I expect the Lions to try and keep him there, but that could backfire too. All in all, this could be a high scoring game even without the Lions’ main passing threat, and the NFL odds for the total are pretty low.

The over is 8-3 for the Vikings in their last 11 games as home favorites between ½ and 3 points, and the over is also 8-3 in their last 11 home games overall. For the Lions, the over is 7-1 in their last eight games playing a team with a losing home record, and the Vikings have cashed the over in five of their last seven divisional games.

Look for this game to have enough scoring to go north of 43 points, so take the over and add it to your NFL Picks for Week 6.

NFL Pick: Over 43 ½ at  Bookmaker

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