NFL Picks & Offseason Recap: History is a Vast Early Warning Sign

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, August 16, 2015 2:31 PM GMT

Sunday, Aug. 16, 2015 2:31 PM GMT

If you want to win more NFL picks this season than ever before, then this article is a must-read, as it recaps the highlights, lowlights and significant changes during the 2015 offseason.

Deflategate
Living in the Boston area I can tell you that I have heard more Bostonians talking about Deflategate than grousing about the Red Sox. Roger Goodell and his coterie of executive coat holders somehow deemed under-inflated footballs in the AFC Championship game as the most egregious violation of rules in professional sports since the Black Sox Scandal of 1919.  

Regardless how you feel about a four-game suspension of Tom Brady, one of the NFL's most cherished ambassadors, as well as a team fine of a million bucks plus the loss of a first and fourth round draft pick, for allegedly being generally aware that the equipment managers allegedly deflated footballs below the legal limit, Goodell has once again stepped knee-deep into another controversy and created more bad press for not only himself but the NFL.

The multi-million dollar Wells Report, paid for exclusively by the league and not the NFL Players Association (so much for objectivity), is being ripped to shreds by Tom Brady's lawyers and members of the media like Gerry Callahan, Kirk Minihane and John Dennis of WEEI in Boston who read every word and dissected every sentence. Regardless how this is adjudicated in federal court it is yet another black-eye for the NFL under Goodell's stewardship. But on the bright side we all know now that the minimum PSI of a regulation NFL football is 12.5. Consider it a victory for education!

 

Movin' On
Please don't be that guy in the local barroom who insists Eagles head coach Chip Kelly will use Shady McCoy even more this season or that Jimmy Graham will lead the Saints back to postseason prominence. During the offseason we had some big names changing uniforms so if you have been frolicking in the sand and surf, or hunting in the deep woods of Alaska all summer long without a care in the world, or an eye on the news, I am here to get you up to speed on some stunning offseason surprises. By the way, Bruce Jenner's a chick.

- Jimmy Graham is officially a member of the Seattle Seahawks and in return the Saints got center Max Unger and the 31st pick in the NFL Draft which turned out to be linebacker and Clemson product Stephone Anthony.

- The Eagles' Chip Kelly is now known 'round these parts as Trader Chip. He moved QB Nick Foles and a second-round pick to St. Louis for the oft-injured Sam Bradford.

- In another Chip Kelly move LeSean McCoy got his Philadelphia freedom and was sent packing to Buffalo in exchange for 2013 rookie sensation and linebacker Kiko Alonso who spent his sophomore season on the shelf with a torn ACL.

- Kelly was not done as he rescued DeMarco Murray from the purgatory that is free agency to fill the gaping void left by LeSean McCoy. Ryan Mathews, formerly of San Diego, will also add plenty of depth to a backfield that also includes Darren Sproles. Oh and if that wasn't enough Kelly decided the locker room needed a little religion and plucked Tim Tebow from the scrap heap to complement second-stringer and former Jet Mark Sanchez.

- Former 49'ers running back Frank Gore is now a Colt, and so too is former All-Everything wide receiver Andre Johnson.

- Patriots secondary gets gutted as Darrelle Revis returns to Gotham and bruising cornerback Brandon Browner signs with the Saints.

- Ndamukung Suh bolts the Motor City and turns his Lions jersey in for a Dolphins uniform. At six-years and $114 million with $60 million guaranteed we can't really blame him.

- Reggie Bush is out in Detroit but lands in San Francisco with Carlos Hyde to replace Frank Gore in the backfield.

- Antonio Cromartie departs the desert and will now team with Darrelle Revis to give the Jets a formidable secondary.

- Rex Ryan now calls the shots in Buffalo and welcomed Percy Harvin into the fold after the Jets released him.

- Jeremy Maclin leaves Philadelphia and lands in Kansas City courtesy of a $55 million deal that reunites him with former coach Andy Reid.

- Haloti Ngata was dealt by the Ravens and replaces or should I say assumes the vacancy left by Ndamukung Suh.

- Julius Thomas was wooed away from Mile High to the NFL wasteland that is Jacksonville and signed the second largest contract for a tight end (Rob Gronkowski of New England is tops) giving Blake Bortles a premier target.

- Big Vince Wilfork could not come to terms with the New England Patriots and now joins JJ Watt in Houston.

- CJ Spiller is out in Buffalo but lands in New Orleans.

- Mike Wallace will try to resurrect his career as Miami dealt him to Minnesota for a fifth-round pick.

 

Here's What Last Season Taught Us
If we don't study history then we are doomed to repeat it. So now is as good a time as any to see what the NFL odds did to home teams, away teams and a variety of other scenarios in 2014. Here is what we know as we comb through the stats:

* Home teams went 152-109-1 (58%) straight up.

* Home underdogs went 43-37 (53.8%) ATS.

* Home dogs facing an opponent coming off two consecutive wins were 21-7 (75%) ATS.

* 11-0 ATS is the startling stat of home dogs getting +3 or more facing a non-conference opponent and winner of two consecutive games. Those dogs won 9-of-11 of those games outright!

* Points are piling up as six games saw at least one team crack the 50-point plateau last season which pummels the historical average of 2.5 times per season. Teams scored 40 or more points 37 times last season which eclipses the historical average of 22.6 occasions.

* The over cashed in 23 of 39 (59%) occasions when the posted NFL odds total was 50 or more.

* Teams returning from London games receive a bye the following week. The week after that they were back in action and if they were at home they went 4-1 ATS.

 

New PAT Rule
The ball will be moved from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line for point after attempts this season. Two-point conversions will remain at the 2-yard line. This rule change does not alter much of anything to be completely honest. There isn't a kicker in the league incapable of the proverbial booming kick. Perhaps this may cause a problem if a PAT is taking place in blizzard conditions but other than that I wouldn't anticipate any unusual point spreads because of it. The NFL odds will be virtually unaffected.

 

Super Bowl 50 Winner

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Browse all Available NFL Futures Odds Here

Odds to Win 2015 NFC Championship (1/24/16) Odds to Win 2015 AFC Championship (1/24/16)

Green Bay Packers 14/5

Seattle Seahawks  16/5

Dallas Cowboys 13/2

Philadelphia Eagles  14/1

Arizona Cardinals  18/1

New York Giants 18/1

Carolina Panthers  20/1

Atlanta Falcons  22/1

Minnesota Vikings 22/1

Detroit Lions  25/1

New Orleans Saints 25/1

St. Louis Rams 25/1

Chicago Bears 37/1

San Francisco 49ers 38/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55/1

Washington Redskins 60/1

Indianapolis Colts 16/5

New England Patriots 9/2

Denver Broncos 11/2

Baltimore Ravens  10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 13/1

Kansas City Chiefs  15/1

Buffalo Bills  18/1

Miami Dolphins  18/1

Cincinnati Bengals  20/1

Houston Texans  22/1

San Diego Chargers 25/1

New York Jets  35/1

Oakland Raiders  55/1

Cleveland Browns 60/1

Jacksonville Jaguars  75/1

Tennessee Titans 75/1

 

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