NFL Picks: Offenses on the Rise Have us Leaning Over on the Jags vs. Colts

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 1, 2015 7:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 7:38 PM UTC

The Indianapolis Colts offense woke up in Week 3. That's a good sign for OVER bettors looking to add Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars to their NFL picks.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 30: 12-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 6-9 Total

Maybe we should take that lid off the coffin. The Indianapolis Colts got it together last week and beat the Tennessee Titans 35-33, cashing in the OVER for the first time this season. Looks like we should have stuck with the sharp action after all. Where are the sharps for Sunday's game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Colts and the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars? According to our consensus reports, nearly everyone was on the OVER when the total opened at 47 points on the NFL odds board.

That was on Sunday. As we go to press, the total has climbed to 48 points, but 62 percent of bettors are still pounding the OVER. Amazingly, this is one of the highest totals on the board for Week 4, even after the OVER went 10-6 in Week 3. What's going on this year?

We're Talking About Practice
It's mayhem out there, folks. Earlier this week, we mentioned the record number of penalties being handed out. Are Roger Goodell and the league front office cracking the whip? Maybe, and maybe this is a by-product of the 2011 CBA, which reduced the players' workload during the offseason and training camps. Across the NFL, insiders are bemoaning how ill-prepared their players are this season.

The focus of attention, believe it or not, is on the offensive line. Okay, it's really on the quarterbacks – we've already had six back-ups thrust into starting assignments through Week 3, and if the Colts aren't careful, Andrew Luck could be joining the list. Luck is considered day-to-day after he was limited in Wednesday's practice with a sore shoulder; he's expected to play Sunday. Between the quarterback casualties and the rise in penalties for holding and false starts (a 20-percent rise, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert), people are starting to appreciate the importance of good offensive line play.

Where Is Your Todd Now?
You certainly couldn't have accused the Colts of good offensive line play in the first two games of the new season. So they decided to tear it down and start over against Tennessee. Todd Herremans was mercifully removed from right guard and replaced by Hugh Thornton. Back-up LT Joe Reitz took over at right tackle for Jack Mewhort, who returned to his original position at left guard while Lance Louis took a seat on the bench. It's still a work in progress, but things went more smoothly last week.

Jacksonville has a revamped offensive line this year, but according to Football Outsiders, it only ranks No. 22 overall in run blocking and pass protection. That's a big improvement from last year, though (No. 30 run, No. 32 pass). Let's put our faith in these O-lines and a small amount of money on the OVER for Sunday's NFL picks. Don't forget to bring protection.

Free NFL Pick: Take OVER 47.5 at WagerWeb

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