NFL Picks: Odds, Spreads & Props To Avoid When Betting Super Bowl

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, February 2, 2016 6:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016 6:45 PM UTC

In just days, Super Bowl 50 will be here. It is without a doubt an American spectacle so let's try to avoid to bet bad numbers,crazy props and so-called expert with your Super Bowl picks.

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NFL Pick: Panthers -5.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


But with every holiday or situation in which fun is involved, over indulgence can lead to later problems. This can be true of the Super Bowl and we are not just talking about Bud Light, Fireball shots and wings.

We are talking about getting sucked into betting the Super Bowl. There is no problem about throwing down an Andrew Jackson on pool for squares, it can be fun and gives you something to root for if you don't care about the teams, but is something completely different to break out money on aspects you have little knowledge of like prop bets or the total on the game if you never follow it other than this day. Here are common mistakes to avoid when making NFL picks for Super Bowl 50.


Do Not Bet into Bad Numbers
If you thought Carolina was the right side to win and cover the Super Bowl, if you did not bet them at -4 from the start, you missed potentially your best opportunity. To bet them at -6 is not a good strategy. Conversely, if believe destiny is calling Denver with Peyton Manning, stop what you are doing and take the Broncos with the Super Bowl odds at +6, because they are not going higher unless somebody from Gary Kubiak's team gets hurt.

If you think Carolina can cover, sit tight, as almost inevitably the favorite goes up early and comes down closer to game time, which will afford a better number than early in this week.


Do Not Bet What You Do Not Know When it Comes To Props
Prop bets for the Super Bowl has become big business for sportsbooks both in Nevada and offshore. Why you ask, because they make money preying on the ill-informed. A couple years ago I was at Super Bowl party and this person was bragging about how he was going to make a killing betting props. He knew other guys at work who had the previous year and was now going to get his. I had not met this individual before, but was curious about what he seemed to know and asked him one question - Who wins and covers the spread?

His response told me everything I needed to know. This was the 2010 contest, New Orleans vs. Indianapolis. He said to me, "I don't know, probably the Saints because of Brees."

Here is a fact, if you don't know who you think will win and cover, how can you win a group or series of prop bets? If you believe Carolina is going to win, chances are James Stewart for OVER rushing yards is a solid play along with Peyton Manning for OVER in passing yards. Betting props for fun is still about having a plan where you follow your predetermined process. If you don't know who will beat the spread in your own mind, why would bet Josh Norman at Over/Under 0.5 interceptions?

To finish the story, this person was down several hundred by the fourth quarter, started chasing to get even while drinking and ended up down almost a grand, by his own words.

Hundreds Of Proposition Wagers Available At SBR's Super Bowl 50 Betting Guide

Avoid Listening to So-Called Experts
Limit your television viewing or radio listening for the Super Bowl unless you have already placed your bets. Happened to be in car and heard ESPN's Danny Kannell say he was waffling on earlier Carolina pick. Here is guy who played high-level college football, played in the NFL and studies film weekly, yet comes out saying the Panthers will be Super Bowl champions, unless, I change my mind and take Denver.

That same day I heard Colin Cowherd talking about Carolina and in his own words, "suggesting Carolina might not be the right choice". A few years ago Cowherd was popular with is "Blazing 5" NFL picks and became popular in the betting forums. His choices have pretty dried up since because he can make a case for sports talk radio, just not do all the research.

He said he was told Carolina is 6-1 SU when playing with any kind of rest since last season (byes or Thursday games), with their margin of victory half compared to playing Sunday after Sunday. Even if you want to take what he said at face value, Cowherd just stated the Panthers are good money line play without saying so. Stay away from these goofs.


Doug's Super Bowl Pick
As many of you know, I have had a great season this year at picking six NFL games weekly and hitting over 60 percent for the season and over 63 percent the second half of the year. I was asked by editors to make one final pick for the season for this article.

My first instinct was to take Denver with Super Bowl underdogs a solid wager and having the best defense, especially as the dog, it made a lot of sense. However, I had something gnawing at me and I just never felt comfortable with that thought process. As I started looking into the numbers, the position breakdown and other possibilities, I became less comfortable with that idea. All season I have trusted what I believe and had a very strong year and once I accepted Carolina was the better team and looked over the situation, I felt relieved with my choice. Cam Newton is better positioned to hold up under defensive pressure than Peyton Manning at this point of these players careers and has been the case of late, the Panthers defense will force turnover which will be the spread difference. Carolina by 7 or more.

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