Friday's Week 7 Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Friday is here and it’s time to take one final look at the NFL Odds for this week, and see if there is any value left on the sportsbooks’ odds boards at the end of the week.
Texans vs. Chiefs
We got word late last night that it will be Case Keenum under center for the Texans this week as they head out on the road I Kansas City, which is surprising since TJ Yates is the backup to Matt Schaub. Neither Yates nor Schaub have looked any good so far this season, and with Schaub hurt, the Texans are going with a very unproven commodity.
The NFL odds for this game have yet to settle, but right now the Chiefs are anywhere from -6 to -7 favorites against the Texans. KC may have one of the league’s best defenses, and against a quarterback with little NFL experience, it might be a very long afternoon for Keenum. While the Chiefs likely won’t blow out the Texans in this game, I think they may be a bit undervalued at -6.
Two underperforming teams face off against one another in Miami this week, as the banged up Bills take their show on the road to play the Dolphins. The NFL Odds for this game have also yet to settle, as the Fins come in anywhere from -7 to -9 ½ favorites in this game. While Miami has a lot of talent, they haven’t been able to put it all together so far this season, and even with the QB issues of the Bills, they may be undervalued as +9 ½ underdogs in this one.
Thad Lewis played very well for only his 2nd career NFL start this past week, and even though going on the road is a different animal, I could easily see the Bills staying competitive against a Dolphins team that has been known for letting teams stay around this season. Don’t be so naïve to think that the Dolphins’ offense is good enough to beat anyone by ten points. I would take the points in this one.
Thursday's Week 7 Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Week 7 is here and Thursday Night Football will kick off what should be a very good week of football. Let’s take one final look at the NFL Odds for Thursday night, and then again at some of the other more intriguing lines before placing our NFL picks.
After opening at -4 ½ in favor of the road Seahawks, the spread for this game shot up to -6 ½ in favor of the road team earlier this week. However now, even though we are only eight or nine hours from kickoff, the spread is far from settled, and that may be good news for bettors still looking for the perfect line.
Right now sportsbooks around the world have this spread anywhere from -5 ½ to -7 in favor of the Seahawks, and although it’s very hard to bet against Seattle in any situation, it seems as if the Cards could have some value in this one if they can get their offense going. They already have a great defense that should give the Hawks some trouble on the road here. Don’t be surprised if the Cardinals keep this game close throughout and get the cover.
One game I have yet to talk about this week is the Eagles playing host to the Cowboys. It looks as if Nick Foles will get the start one more time for the Eagles, and if he performs well, it might be a bit of a decision on whether to bring Michael Vick back at all. The NFL odds for this one favor Philadelphia here at -2 ½, with a total of well over 50 points.After opening as a pick em’ earlier in the week, steady action on the Eagles has forced the line to almost a field goal. Even though Dallas is 5-1 ATS this season, (something I don’t think anyone saw coming considering their history) they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Eagles.
Wednesday's Week 7 Betting Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
NFL Week 7 Odds update
Tomorrow will mark the kickoff of Week 7 in the regular season, and the NFL Odds for this week have been slowly starting to budge from their initial opening movement. So far this week we have covered the close spreads, as well as the home underdogs, but for today, it’s all about chalk.
Chargers vs. Jaguars
To their credit, both teams are a bit overvalued here. The Jags put up an honest and solid fight against the Broncos, as they trailed by one point at half time, making Jags 1st half bettors celebrating. The Chargers of course beat up on the Colts at home on Monday, and now they are -9 ½ favorites in Jacksonville this week. I am already on record saying I like the Jags in this game. A west coast team traveling east, along with the over inflation in the odds caused by their primetime win, I think the Jags can cover +9 ½ at home. If Cecil Shorts plays it’s even better. That offense isn’t the worst in the NFL with Chad Henne at QB, and he has already been named the starter.
Browns vs. Packers
The only other large spread of the Week 7 NFL odds is the suddenly banged up Packers. They are down arguably their best receiver until likely the playoffs, and James Jones is also questionable this week. Either way the Packers are still -10 favorites against the Browns and Brandon Weeden this week. While the total of 46 interests me more than the spread, at this point I think you have to lean towards Green Bay even though they’re laying so many points. Weeden has one approximately one road win in his career, and is a career 1-7 SU on the road. However either way it goes, I think I would rather play the under on this one instead of a lofty spread.
Tuesday's Week 7 Betting Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Week 6 is in the past and even though bye weeks are starting to hit hard, there is still some sports betting value to be had in the NFL odds. Yesterday I highlighted some of the home underdogs opening up this week, but for Tuesday, let’s take a look at some of the close spreads Week 7 has to offer.
The Redskins opened up as a "pick'em" in this game and have quickly moved to -1.5 in the NFL odds against the Bears. Chicago’s defense hasn’t been playing exceptionally well this season, and while Washington looked better on Sunday against Dallas, it’s hard to tell which one of these teams will show up, hence the close spread. I don’t expect this spread to move much further throughout the week. It seems like it will stay around -1 in favor of the Skins. However don’t be surprised if there is some late underdog money on the Bears, who are an intriguing +110.
Ravens vs. Steelers
When the Ravens and Steelers get together, you know the spread is going to be close. In seven of their last eight games, the spread has been 3.5 or lower. This week, the sportsbooks have the Steelers as -1 favorites, with a total of 40.5. If the Ravens can ever get off to a hot start, we would be talking about them to win the Super Bowl again. However slow starts to games have led them to a 3-3 SU record this season. If Baltimore can’t start scoring in the 1st quarter, they will continue to look up at Cincinnati in that division. The Ravens have scored a total of 10 1st quarter points this season through six games. Seven of them were against the Broncos, and they have scored a total of 3 points in the first quarters of their last five games. If they can’t get off to a better start against the Steelers, Pittsburgh is going to win here, so take this into account when placing your NFL picks.
What are your thoughts on Week 7's games? Sound off on SBRForum's football message boards!
Monday's Week 7 Betting Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Week 6 was a crazy mess of ugly and low scoring games, but even though there was some bad football played, eight out of the 13 favorites cashed, which means it was probably a bad weekend for the sportsbooks. Week 7 should have some similar value to it, but there are also several home underdogs starting to come out in the NFL odds. Will these favorites on the road see the same success as the Week 6 teams did? Road favorites were 4-1 ATS in Week 6.
Both of these teams were facing tough grinding games in Week 6. The Hawks won but didn’t cover against the Titans at home, while the Cards lost both SU and ATS after staying within one score for most of their game at San Francisco. Now they face one another on a short week this Thursday, and the NFL odds are favoring the road Hawks here at -6. Arizona is dealing with a double hamstring pull to Larry Fitzgerald, and outside of him, there are few, if any Cardinals that can move the ball on offense. His status could mean several more points in this spread, and I think we can expect this line to rise at some point this week.
Patriots vs. Jets
The Patriots come into Week 7 after getting a huge come from behind win against the Saints, and now are -4 ½ favorites on the road against the Jets. Danny Amendola sustained a bad hit to the head, and it looks as if he sustained a concussion against New Orleans. The Pats are still without Rob Gronkowski, and there is no telling when he will play thanks to the shifty Patriots’ injury reports. One thing is certain, these two faced off in Week 2 on Thursday night and the Pats only won by 3 points, and that was at home. I think there may be early value on New York, even though they did not look very good against Pittsburgh this past week. You have to judge more on matchups than the previous weeks in the NFL, and with Aqib Talib sustaining an injury for New England, the best value for our NFL picks is still open in this one depending on who suits up for New England here.
49ers vs. Titans
The Hawks are Cardinals’ opponents from Week 6 now square off against one another in Week 7, and the NFL odds have the Titans as +4 home underdogs against the visiting Niners. Out of the three home underdogs listed here so far, the Titans probably have the most value. Tennessee plays well at home, and their defense has been playing very well this season. They almost pulled off the upset against the Hawks in Seattle, and that is no small task. The Titans have routinely been undervalued this season, going 3-1-1 ATS. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick, there is upset potential here, but not much.
Broncos vs. Colts
The game of the week is undoubtedly Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. Right now, even though the Colts have yet to play in Week 6 on Monday night, the Broncos are -6 road favorites in this Week 7 game. Remember about 35 words ago when I said the Titans had the most value so far, well, now we are at the Colts. Indianapolis could have really good value at +6. They are by far the best team Manning and the Broncos have played so far this season, they are at home, and they are built better than almost any team when it comes to competing against Denver. The Colts will run the ball all day, throw when Denver least expects it, and try to play shut down defense in the secondary. It may be a long shot, but teased up to almost two scores may be excellent value with Indy as well.