NFL Week 4 - Swinger's Picks
Swinger's Record (4-4, -6.7 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
My major wager went down last week when the Vikings faltered and ultimately lost to the new look Browns. It was a four unit money burner and when your max play caps out at five units, it's significant no doubt. But I can stomach that loss because quite frankly I deserved to lose it. I miscalculated the strength of the Vikings defense versus what I considered to be an anemic Cleveland offense.
However, the loss two unit loss on the Raiders +15 ½ ate me up after they bowed 37-21 to the Broncos on Monday night. Yes kids, that's right they lost by 16 and I got beaten by a hook. Since when does any number between 14 and 17 matter? Well it mattered to me and that's why shopping for the best NFL odds is crucial.
On the positive side we did cash with a 1 ½ point NFL odds underdog in the Detroit Lions for three units as they got the job done over the Redskins who remain winless on the young season. So that's it kids, we should have gone 2-1 last week but ifs and buts are for losers and mutts. Let's take a look at our NFL picks for Week 4 and try to crawl out of this early season deficit.
The Cardinals got blasted by a very talented New Orleans squad last week 31-7 and this weekend they're traveling to Tampa Bay to take on a very talented defense. The Bucs have decided that while their defense is strong they needed to do something about their lackluster offense and thus the switch at quarterback this week when 3rd round pick Mike Glennon of NC State fame gets the nod over previous incumbent Josh Freeman.
Though Glennon did have an issue with tossing picks during his collegiate career his upside is enormous. This will be a big win for the Bucs and a big play for us. I'm going all-in with a confident rookie and a solid defense.
Play the Bucs -135 for 5 units (MAX PLAY) on the money line at Bet365.com
I don't want to chase my tail on the Raiders just because they were edged out of a cover last week and cost me a few units on my sports picks. But I simply don't know why an 0-3 Redskins team is favored on the road against a team that is clearly improving. It makes no sense and I have no idea why the oddsmakers are giving me points with the Silver & Black but I will take them.
Play the Oakland Raiders +3 ½ for 3 units at William Hill.com
I want to like the Chargers, I really do. Their fans have had more disappointment over the last several years than a fat guy at an all-you-can-eat tofu buffet. But their loss last week to the Titans proved they are the same old, same old and I'm not breaking the golden rule of throwing good money after bad teams.
Conversely, how 'bout them Cowboys?! The offense is about as potent as any in the NFL with Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray firing on all cylinders. The Boyz rung up 36 points on the Giants in the opening week and shredded the Rams for 31 last week. This team has the ability to make even good defenses look bad and they will be playing a Chargers team that allowed 31 to Houston, 30 to the Eagles and last week watched a pedestrian Titans offense connect for 20 points.
I know road chalk is the death knell for squares but betting football is on a case by case basis and this is a case where we will gladly lay it and like it.
I appreciate and respect the Dolphins undefeated record but I absolutely LOVE the new look Saints. Rob Ryan has given the Saints the gift that keeps on giving - Defense! The offense is already loaded for bear with Brees pulling the trigger. This one will be a blowout and the Fins will be exposed.
Play the Saints -6 (-120) for 4 units at WilliamHIll.com
The Woodman's Corner (1-2, -1.2 units) - Guest Handicapper
You would think a guy named the Woodman would be inclined to lay the lumber but he never saw a head start he didn't like so with that, he's backing Eli Manning and the underwhelming NY Giants +4 at Bet365.com with his NFL picks over the upstart Kansas City Chiefs.