NFL Picks: NFL Week 4 Player Prop Betting

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, September 29, 2013 12:59 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 29, 2013 12:59 PM UTC

We have had a pretty successful start to our NFL prop betting picks, and now it’s time for Week 4 of the season.

For more info on Sunday's games, read our NFL Picks: Week 4 Betting Odds Report!

I have three more player props for you this week, and almost through 25% of the season, let’s pad our bankrolls some more through the first quarter of the season. All of these props are from Bet365 sportsbook.

Player Performances

Ryan Matthews (53.5 rushing yards)

The Chargers get to play the Cowboys this afternoon, and while Dallas could very well win this game by 20 or lose by 20, the one constant they have is a solid rushing defense. Through three games, the Cowboys rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing defense, only giving up 66.3 yards per game. While two of their three games were against the Giants and Rams, (two teams with zero run games) their defense is still a big reason why they have not given up many yards on the ground. Even though they were ahead big, they still were stingy.

Enter Ryan Matthews, a talented tail back who has seen his role diminish faster than ever this season. While it started last season under Norv Turner, the new regime under Mike McCoy has turned Matthews into a loan 1st and 2nd down tail back this season, and while he could still be successful in that role, he has yet to be so far this season. His skills are much more adapted to running in space not right up the middle. I think that will hurt his value against the strong Cowboys run defense, and I can’t see him getting more than 50 yards on the ground.

NFL Pick: ‘Under’ 53.5 rushing yards (-110)

Matt Ryan (298.5 passing yards)

Matt Ryan faces off against the Patriots, a team he has not beaten during his career. Ryan’s dynamic offense has been hindered so far this season, and against the Patriots, 300 passing yards might be a stretch. With Roddy White hurting still and Steven Jackson out of this game, the Falcons’ offense is going to be rather predictable.

Without Jackson, the Falcons will be forced to throw on a very good Patriots secondary. So far this season, the Pats rank 6th in the NFL only giving up 188 passing yards per game. With the Pats’ secondary playing so well this season, I doubt Ryan amasses a bunch of passing yards in this one. Even though he is a great QB, 298 passing yards is a bit much. I’m seeing about 250 passing yards today, and that would mean I’m on the 'Under' in this one, for my sports picks.

NFL Pick: ‘Under’ 298.5 passing yards (-110)

Heath Miller, touchdown

Heath Miller made his return to the Steelers this past week, and this week he gets one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Vikings. On top of not being very good overall, the Vikings are currently giving up a ton of points to opposing tight ends. Through only three games, the Vikings have given up 6 touchdowns to their opponents’ tight ends.

While Miller is coming off of an ACL injury, he looked pretty good for a guy who tore his ACL late last season. Against the shaky Vikings, and with not much else to throw to, I could see Ben Roethlisberger finding Miller in the endzone for a touchdown.

Not only are his chances of scoring a TD good, but his price in the NFL odds to score a touchdown makes this prop even better. At +162 to score anytime during the game, I am biting on this one, and hoping that Miller finds his way into the endzone.

NFL Pick: Heath Miller TD Scored (+162)

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