NFL Picks: NFL Week 3 Betting Odds Report

Jordan Sharp

Monday, September 16, 2013 4:12 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 16, 2013 4:12 PM GMT

Week 3 of the NFL regular season gets underway tonight when the Chiefs square off against the Eagles. We continue our brief look at this week's football games to see how the odds are developing.

 

20th SEPT
Friday's Week 3 Betting Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Week 3 is well underway and after a rousing Thursday night game, the weekend is finally here. While some are consumed with the madness that is college football, I am spending my Friday taking one final look at the Week 3 NFL odds. Let’s dive in and see where the value is at the end of the workweek. 

Lions vs. Redskins

This spread has been moving all week, and finally on Friday it seems as if it’s settling back down. The Lions and Skins opened as a pick em, then moved to favor the Skins at -2, and now it’s starting to go right back to an even wager. The status of Reggie Bush is a big reason why this spread has not settled yet. Bush has not practiced all week, and is a true game time decision Sunday in DC. If Bush plays, I think there may be serious value on the Lions on the road in this one. The Lions’ offense is very good when he is out there and healthy, and they could do some serious damage to the bad Skins defense.

[gameodds]16/226903/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Falcons vs. Dolphins

This is one of the only lines that haven’t settled late in the week, and it doesn’t look like it’s close either. You can take anywhere from +1 to +3 with the Falcons on the road this week, and the fact that you can still get the Dolphins at -1 ½ (-110) or -1 (-121) is pretty crazy. I have already given my pick on this game, and I think the Falcons may be in a world of hurt come this Sunday. A money line bet on the Dolphins may be the best move right now considering all of the injuries facing the Falcons on both sides of the ball. I see this line settling on the higher side of the range it’s in right now.

[gameodds]16/226910/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

 

19th SEPT
Thursday's Week 3 Betting Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Thursday is here, which means the kick-off to Week 3 of the NFL is mere hours away. I have already given one pick on tonight’s game, so let’s take a look at where the odds sit for Thursday, as well as some of the other games with fast moving spreads.

Chiefs vs. Eagles

The spread opened up in favor of the Eagles at -3, and here on Thursday it is still sitting there. Andy Reid’s return to Philly has NFL bettors somewhat split on this game, but 55% of all bets are going towards the Eagles here, however the money wagered is even closer than that.

While this should be a great contest with a lot of back and forth scoring, I don’t think there is going to be an abundance of scoring from either side. With the Eagles’ hot start, the total may be the line that has been inflated to the point of extra value, because the spread is a wash at this point. Check out my prop betting NFL picks for this game tonight as well. There should be plenty of value.

[gameodds]16/226900/?r3=349-43-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Browns vs. Vikings

After opening as -3.5 favorites, the Vikings have almost doubled since yesterday at -6 in the NFL odds. Why is this, you ask? It’s because the Browns are throwing in the towel on the 2013 season already, as they traded away the guy picked right behind Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in the 2012 draft.

Trent Richardson’s trade to Indianapolis turned this spread from a field goal to a touchdown, so congrats to anyone who snuck in at -3.5 Vikings. With Brandon Weeden hurt, not playing and probably losing his job after he comes back, there isn’t much hope around the Browns right now, and they could easily challenge the Jags for the #1 overall pick this next draft. I’m not sure if the Vikings have any sports betting value now that they are -6, because this team isn’t that good either. I’m staying as far away from this game as possible, and I recommend you do as well.

[gameodds]16/226909/?r3=349-43-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Discuss Week 3 of the NFL regular season on SBRForum's football message boards!

 

18th SEPT
Wednesday's Week 3 Betting Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Thursday night is right around the corner for the start of NFL Week 3, but there are still some games with lines that are just coming out. Before we take one last look at tomorrow’s game, let’s briefly look into some of the last lines to come out for Sunday.

Packers vs. Bengals

This line was just coming out yesterday as I was going to press, but outside of a few others, this game could be one of the most entertaining and valuable games of Week 3. The NFL Odds have the Packers as -2 ½ road favorites in this one, with a total of 48 points. We have seen heavy early week line movement on this game since it came out on odds boards, and after starting as a pick em’, the Packers have rapidly moved to -2 ½, and even -3 road favorites in this one. I had a feeling the Packers had some value when I saw them at -1 ½, but those days are long gone. Hopefully you got in early on this one, because it appears some people got excellent value with Green Bay, who I think could win by a touchdown in this game.

[gameodds]16/226907/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Falcons vs. Dolphins

This game is still up for grabs, and I have already given my pick on the Dolphins -1. However unless you’re shopping at 5Dimes or the Greek, these NFL Odds are moving fast. The Falcons lost Steven Jackson and a couple of their better starting defenders in Week 2, and they are looking very vulnerable against a pretty good Dolphins team. Miami’s defense is good enough to slow down the crippled Falcons offense, because as long as they hold down Julio Jones, there isn’t much else with Jackson out and Roddy White hurting. Dolphins -1 is a bargain right now, and that is still available for your Week 3 NFL picks. 

[gameodds]16/226910/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]


17th SEPT
Tuesday's Week 3 Betting Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Most online sportsbooks have now posted the full set of Week 3 NFL odds, and there have been several that have just come out within the last 24 hours. Let’s take a brief opening look at these games, and see where the early week value is for our NFL picks.

Colts vs. 49ers

The Colts come into this game after losing to Miami, and now going on the road to San Francisco, and they are double digit underdogs to a pissed off 49ers team. The NFL odds favor the Niners at -10, with a total of 46 points. While I think the 49ers should be well over a touchdown favorite, 5Dimes has the spread at -11 ½, which may be slightly undervaluing the Colts here. However San Francisco could have a game like they did against the Packers, and if that’s the case, they would easily have the value. Right now I think the best option for our early week sports betting is to jump on the ‘Over.’ 46 may be too little for these two offenses.

[gameodds]16/226912/?r3=43-19-349/us&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Jaguars vs. Seahawks

I have not seen NFL odds this high as long as I’ve been handicapping. The Seahawks are -19 ½ favorites in this game, with a total of 40 ½. This is like a college game, and Seattle can probably cover like a college team. The Jags are a mess, they are traveling over 3000 miles for this game, and they are going to a stadium that is almost impossible to win at. All things considered, crazier things have happened in the NFL, and I have no idea who I would lean towards on this spread. This is like a Week 1 college game, and it might be that painful to watch.

[gameodds]16/226913/?r3=43-19-349/us&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Make sure you check back for my daily blog updates on all the happenings with the Week 3 NFL odds, and also check my weekly NFL Picks. In two weeks of action, we already have a healthy bankroll!

 

16th SEPT
Monday's Week 3 Opening Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Check back daily for my NFL Week 3 Odds blog updates!

There are several games that I have my eye on this week, including the Thursday night game. 

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia should be not only a headline grabbing matchup, but both of these two teams are a lot better than what some expected this season. The NFL odds for this matchup favor the Eagles here at -3, with a very large total of 50 points. Seeing as it’s a short week, watching these odds will be key over the next few days, just to see where the early line movement is headed. We will be covering this one extensively over the next few days, trying to cram for what should be a great game for value and for viewing.

[gameodds]16/226900/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

One-point spreads

There are several games in the Week 3 NFL schedule that opened up with a team as slight -1 sports betting favorites, and all four could have some great early week value because of it. A lot of the spreads are calculating injuries to key players.

Giants vs. Panthers

The Panthers and Giants hook up in Carolina and the Panthers are slight favorites in this one. Both teams have looked awful in Week 2, and yesterday the Panthers lost their starting safety, Charles Godfrey, likely for the season. With how bad the Giants have looked on both offense and defense, I have to lean towards the Panthers, but with these two teams, you never know what you’re going to get on any given Sunday, so it might be best to lay off entirely.

[gameodds]16/226902/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Lions vs. Redskins

This one should be another game where the defense is bad, and the offense all depends on one key guy from each team. The Skins and Robert Griffin III haven’t looked great, but the Washington defense has looked worse. On the other side, the health of Reggie Bush is in question this week as well, after he left, came back and left Sunday’s game again with a knee injury. Although he says he doesn’t think it’s serious, he is scheduled for an MRI today as a precaution, and is listed as questionable.

[gameodds]16/226903/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Texans vs. Ravens

The Texans are actually the -1 road favorite in this game, and as long as Ray Rice is ok for this week, I have to say I like the Ravens here for my NFL picks. This could either be a really good or really bad game to watch and bet on, and that may mean NFL bettors need to lay off. However I do think there is value with the home team if their star runner is healthy. Keep an eye on it.

[gameodds]16/226901/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Falcons vs. Dolphins

Finally, the Falcons are +1 underdogs in Miami this week, and as good as the Dolphins have looked, I believe it. The Falcons’ defense is nowhere to be found, and the Miami offense has some upside with Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace. The Dolphins as -1 favorites may be a bargain, or it could be a big trap if the Falcons come to play. Watch for Steven Jackson’s status this week after he had to leave the game last week, but either way, the Dolphins look ok here.

[gameodds]16/226910/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Discuss Week 3 of the NFL regular season on SBRForum's football message boards!

comment here