Friday is here and the final injury reports for the weekend will be coming out an hour now. That should mean some serious line movement for some of these games, so let’s take a look at some of the games that are waiting on news and practice reports from important players.
Roddy White has still not practiced as of Thursday, and if he does not practice on Friday, that may put his chances of never missing a start in jeopardy. The NFL odds right now for the Rams at +7, but if White and his defensive teammate Jonathon Babineaux aren’t able to play, I think those two combined are enough to start dropping this spread. White was very limited last week against the Saints, and if the Falcons don’t have White, their Super Bowl chances are gone. Keep a close eye on the practice reports for today, but if White doesn’t play or is limited, that could give Rams +7 some value right now for our NFL picks.
Another injury to a key receiver is also plaguing the Cowboys, and that injury is to Dez Bryant. Bryant has been at practice this week, however his ineffectiveness due to the foot injury seems to be prevalent. If Bryant’s foot isn’t healthy enough for him to at least be the #2 receiver in that offense, than the Chiefs may be very undervalued here. I think they may be anyways, because if you have followed Tony Romo’s career, if he is good the week before on national television, he might stink it up the next week. This could be especially true if Bryant is limited in any way on Sunday.
Line movementThe Bears and Vikings line is slowly dropping, and I think more value is actually being created because of it. The Bears were -6 ½ favorites, but have dropped to -5 ½ at most sportsbooks. Keep watching it, because if it gets any lower it might become a steal in this week’s NFL Odds.
Thursday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
NFL Week 2 Odds update
It’s Thursday, and we are finally starting to see some movement in the NFL odds, especially in tonight’s game between the Patriots and the Jets. There could be some value opening up as the public moves in on the betting lines, so let’s see if there is a shimmer somewhere on the odds boards before making our NFL picks.
After opening as +13 underdogs, the Jets have seen some money come their way the last few days, and now the NFL Odds for this game seem to be settling with the Patriots as -11 favorites at home, with a total of 42 ½. This spread was almost two touchdowns despite the Patriots not covering as heavy favorites in Week 1, and this week it seems the people are thinking a Jets cover could happen here. Almost 55% of all bets on this game have come in on the side of the underdogs, and a huge 70% of all the money is also on the Jets. The sportsbooks are cheering for the Patriots to blow out New York in this game.
One of the biggest surprises is the drop in the spread between the Dolphins and Colts. Indianapolis opened as a solid -3 or higher favorite, and now there are sportsbooks that have the Colts as only a -1 favorite. Sharps have been moving in on the Dolphins in this game, and even though the money is similar for both sides, the average bet size is nearly 40% higher on the Dolphins than one on the Colts.
A game that could just be starting to see the line drop is between the Texans and Titans. After opening at -10 Houston, the spread has now gotten down to -9 at some shops, and it could keep going. We’ll take one final look at that tomorrow, as well as other shifting games before the end of the week!
Wednesday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
It’s Wednesday and the entire slate of NFL odds are out for Week 2 as we hit the start of practices on Wednesday. Obviously we have the game tomorrow night, but let’s take a look at the last batch of Sunday and Monday odds we haven’t covered, and then tomorrow we should start to see movement as practice reports begin to surface.
This is the marquee matchup of the entire week, and Sunday night should be an epic showdown between divisional foes. The Hawks are -3 or even -2 ½ favorites across the NFL odds board right now, with a total of 44 ½. Most books have some chalk on the Niners +3, and unless that changes within the next three days, this might be a no play. I could see San Francisco having some value at +3 ½, but that is only going to happen if the public starts betting Seattle in the next few days. Keep an eye on it, and the second it goes up, that may be when it starts having more sports betting value than it currently holds.
Steelers vs. Bengals
Pittsburgh saw their season almost go up in flames after one home loss last week, and now they are on the road in the den of a pissed off tiger. Cincinnati is a -6 ½ favorite in this game with a total of around 41 points. The line is far from settling, but it seems as if it can go nowhere but up throughout this week. There are already other sportsbooks with the line at -7, and 5Dimes has it at -7 ½ in favor of the Bengals.
This is going to be a nice game early on Sunday, and the NFL odds for it are everywhere. The Packers are anywhere from -7 ½ to -9 ½ favorites in this game, and every sportsbook has a different line and price on this game. While that may change within the next several days after practices conclude, early week value does seem to be emerging on both sides. The line opened at -7 ½ Packers, but the price was +110 at some places. Early week betting has been more on the Redskins on the road taking points.
Tuesday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
It’s Tuesday and the rest of the Week 2 NFL odds are starting to come up onto boards at sportsbooks around the globe. Yesterday we highlighted some of the bigger numbers facing NFL bettors for Week 2, and now it’s time to take a look at some of the lines that are coming out today after Monday Night Football’s conclusion.
Chargers vs. Eagles
The Chargers blew a 20 point lead to the Texans late last night, and they come in as +7 underdogs to another team that played on Monday, the Eagles. Philadelphia looked really good in their win against the rusty Redskins, and coming in as big favorites at home against the Chargers does not surprise me one bit. The total for this game opened at 51 ½ points and has quickly risen to 53 points after early betting, and that’s the number I would keep my eye on. An ‘Over’ bet on this game might be the best early option for our NFL picks.
Late on Monday evening, these two teams finally got their NFL odds from the sportsbooks, and the Broncos come in as -4 ½ road favorites in this game, with a total of 55 points. Denver has obviously had a lot more time to rest and prepare for this game, and after the performance the Giants put up against the Cowboys, I think Denver being over a field goal road favorite is adequately priced.
So far the biggest move we have seen has come in the Dallas and Kansas City game. After opening at -1 ½ in favor of the Chiefs, early NFL odds betting has moved the line up to -3 in favor of the Chiefs. This is interesting, because even after their Week 1 win at home where they have been the opposite of valuable, the Cowboys are underdogs on the road here, where they were actually pretty good last season.
Monday's Week 2 Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Let’s take a brief look at some of the bigger numbers out there, and then see if anything that is currently on boards at the sportsbooks is worth an early week consideration.
Currently, we are still missing lines from the teams playing this evening, as well as the Cowboys vs. Chiefs, and the Manning brother battle between Denver and New York. I will start to cover those on my update tomorrow, and the rest of the week leading into the weekend.
Jets vs. Patriots
The biggest spread of the week is by far the Thursday night game between the Jets and the Patriots. The Pats are huge -13 favorites in the NFL odds, and while the line can also be had at -12.5, after the performance from both teams on Sunday, this spread is a bit more intriguing. Even though I am far from recommending a sports pick on this spread, I could see it going up or down in the days to come. Early action seems to be split right down the middle, and I will continue to follow this game as the week goes on. The total for these two teams is 44.
Lions vs. Cardinals
The Lions and Cardinals should be a sneaky good game on Sunday afternoon, and the line is the lowest one out so far, sitting at a "Pick 'em". Detroit seems to have the early chalk in this one leaving the Cards as very small home underdogs in the early Week 2 lines. I expect this one to even up a bit more throughout the week, because you can still get the Cardinals at +100 or even +105 at Pinnacle. If you like the Cards, take them now for your NFL picks. I think the Lions’ big scoring game against the Vikings last week is a little misleading. The Cards have a much better defense than Minnesota.
Games of note
Panthers vs. Bills
Even though the Panthers have never been known as a killer road team, they played their asses off against the Hawks at home, and now on the road against a softer Bills defense, the Panthers are only -3 favorites on the road. While this could be a big bear trap by the sportsbooks, it could also hold some early week value. A -3 bet on the Panthers here on Monday is priced low at -105, and it could end up being a bargain. Not that I am that excited about it, but even after their Week 1 loss, I expected the Panthers to be more than a field goal favorite in this one.
Saints vs. Bucs
I was preaching it all summer. The Bucs are not that good, and Josh Freeman’s job is not safe. I had people comment that I didn’t know what I was talking about, and “I stopped watching after you said Freeman’s job wasn’t safe.” Don’t worry, folks... I’ll wait for your apology. Freeman was awful on Sunday, only completing 15 of his passes, (almost all to Vincent Jackson) he fumbled into the end zone for a safety, and he threw an interception to cap it all off. Now at home against one of the toughest offenses in the NFL, and the Bucs are only +3 underdogs. I already love the Saints here. Even if this is a trap, at -3 and -115, I am falling in and hoping there are bunches of couch cushions to land on, because I don’t think there is any way the Saints don’t blast the Bucs here. Tampa’s defense aside, if you lose to the Jets, you are not good at all.
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