Friday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
The end of the workweek is upon us, which means we are just 48 hours away from the restart of Week 12. The NFL odds are settling down fast, but there may still be some value left. Let’s take one final look at this week’s NFL odds.
Jaguars vs. Texans
These two AFC South teams have a combined three wins to their names, and this week the NFL Odds have the Texans as -10 favorites against the Jags. Although they hit a low point last week, the sportsbooks aren’t hesitating to price the Texans as huge favorites this week, because that may be how bad the Jaguars are. Houston has won their last six games in a row against the Jaguars, however this will be the first time the two sad teams meet up this season. Although I doubt this game has any value left, the Texans aren’t exactly the best team to be laying ten points with.
This looked like a potential playoff preview during the preseason, but in a way, both of these teams have disappointed this season. Both teams have been hurt a lot, but the 49ers have been really banged up this season, while Washington looks lost every week. The NFL odds favor the road 49ers by -5 ½, and -6 in some instances, and despite having to travel all the way across the country, San Francisco may be undervalued here. Washington’s defense has been atrocious this season, and although they have had their issues, Colin Kaepernick should have no problems throwing the ball in Washington. For me, this could be nice value on San Francisco. Washington has become very predictable on offense, and with rifts seemingly growing in the locker room, I doubt the Skins come to play.
Thursday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
It’s Thursday, so let’s start off by taking a look at tonight’s kick off to Week 12, as well as some of the other NFL odds associated with divisional showdowns taking place this week.
After opening at -7 ½ in favor of the Saints, the NFL odds have grown to -9 in favor of the Saints in Atlanta tonight. A short week is hard for both teams here, as Tony Gonzalez for the Falcons, and Darren Sproles for the Saints are pretty banged up right now. At -9, the Saints could find themselves up by 20, or only 3 in this game. The Falcons’ defense should give up a ton of yards and points, but their offense has the ability to keep up with New Orleans to an extent. I wouldn’t feel really confident recommending either one of these teams here, but I do think there are some great prop plays.
Vikings vs. Packers
Minnesota and Green Bay are both dealing with quarterback issues, but lucky for Green Bay that theirs are temporary. The Packers are a -4 ½ favorite here with Scott Tolzien leading the charge, but there is one player whose presence could make or break a pick on this game. Reports out of Minnesota are that Adrian Peterson could see the field this weekend, and if that’s the case, this spread could drop another point. The Packers opened at -5, and if AP plays, I think we can expect this spread to drop some, maybe even to -3 ½ Packers. However Peterson did not practice Wednesday, and if he doesn’t at least get some limited work in by Friday, the Packers are probably the play here, even with sportsbooks listing them at -4 ½. Tolzien can get the win here. Despite throwing three picks, he didn’t play horribly on the road last week in New York.
Wednesday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
We have reached the middle of the work week, and as we enter the latter third of the NFL regular season, the NFL Odds are getting tougher. Let’s take a look here on a Wednesday at some of the small spreads this week. There are four games with home teams as -1 favorites this week, and there could be some value in them.
The Steelers’ season is almost in the lost cause realm, and they head into Cleveland this weekend to play the Browns as +1 NFL Odds underdogs. Pittsburgh played well in the 2nd half last week against the Lions, and their pass defense was virtually unbreakable in the 2nd half of last week. If that Steelers’ defense shows up this weekend in Cleveland, they should have no problem covering on the road to keep their still very slim playoff chances alive. I see Pittsburgh having the best value for our NFL picks here.
Colts vs. CardinalsThis game should actually be very entertaining as the NFL Odds are favoring the Cardinals here at -1, with a total of 45 points. The Colts have been all over the place this season, making handicapping them a living nightmare. The Cardinals on the other hand have been playing great defense over their last three games, winning all three SU and averaging giving up only 17 points per game during that stretch. If the Colts’ defense and running game shows up in Phoenix, they should surely edge out a win in this game against the Cards, however as we have seen so far this season, if the Colts aren’t playing perfect football on all sides of the ball, they have some problems. The Cards are going to slow down the Colts’ ground game, and as long as Andrew Luck doesn’t turn the ball over, Indianapolis should win here.
Tuesday's Odds Update
By: Jordan Sharp
We are approaching the latter third of the NFL season, and the NFL Odds are getting tougher to break with each passing week. The Week 12 NFL Odds are completely out this Tuesday morning, and after covering some of the more marquee games yesterday, let’s take a look at some of the less desirable games to watch this weekend, as they may have some more value.
After two straight wins, the Bucs head to Detroit to play the Lions this weekend, and the NFL Odds have the Lions anywhere from -8 ½ to -10 favorites early in the week. Jim Schwartz and the Lions’ secondary squandered away the potential win this past week after giving up 17 unanswered points to end the game against Pittsburgh. Lucky for the Lions is that the Bucs can’t pass the ball that well, and while -10 may be a bit much, the Lions are surely a touchdown better than the Bucs at home. Even though it may seem to have value, I don’t trust either of these teams with my NFL picks at these prices.
Titans vs. Raiders
The Raiders are -1 favorites in the NFL Odds against Tennessee this week, and after Matt McGloin’s solid performance in the win this past week for the Raiders, it looks as if he may get another shot at starting this week when the Titans come to town. If indeed the Terrelle Pryor experiment is truly over, the Raiders might have extremely good value here as only slight home favorites. The Tennessee defense is much better than the Texans’ defense right now, but traveling across the country is always tough at this point in the season. I expect to see more upward movement in this spread if McGloin starts again.
Monday's Opening Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Chargers vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs played the Broncos well in Mile High yesterday, and now they head back home for a warm up game against the Chargers. The NFL Odds have the Chiefs as a -4 ½ favorite against Phillip Rivers, and immediately I think the favorites could have value. They could fall into the trap game scenario, but that just isn’t the Chiefs. I think they take out their frustrations from losing on San Diego, who looked bad this week in Miami against a bad defense. Now going on the road again to play their divisional rival, and I could see the Chiefs winning easily here. Look for these odds to go up towards the end of the week.
Bears vs. Rams
This may not seem like a big game to the naked eye, but it has huge playoff implications for the Bears, and it also looks to have great value. Chicago is in 2nd place in the NFC North, however they have the same record as the Lions who are also 6-4 SU and the Bears also make a serious push for a wildcard spot with another win here, which could completely turn their season around even without Jay Cutler for the next few weeks. The NFL Odds for this game are dead even at a pick em’ and even though they are on the road, I think Chicago can come in and blast the Rams, even though their defense hasn’t played well.
Cowboys vs. Giants
The NFL Odds have the Giants anywhere from -1 to -3 favorites in this one with the Cowboys coming to town. The Giants are pushing back towards the playoffs after starting horribly this season, and with the Cowboys coming off of their bye week, this should be a good game. I think we can expect the spread to stay lower than -3 this week. I could see the public really betting heavy on the Cowboys this week, but either way it goes, this spread should settle below a field goal. -1 ½ to -2 seem like reasonable lines for this NFC East showdown, with huge playoff implications for that division.
Broncos vs. Patriots
This one should be s showstopper, as Peyton Manning and the Broncos once again grace us with their presence on Sunday night. After beating the Chiefs for the first time this season, and even though Tom Brady and the Patriots have yet to play, the Broncos come in as a -3 road favorite here. While the early lines are not out completely for this Sunday night game, it should be noted that the Pats could have great value here, especially if they come out and destroy Carolina tonight on the road. New England is starting to get back to full health, and they could also beat the Broncos on a short week. I could recommend placing your NFL picks on the Pats based on the early week line.