NFL Picks: NFL Week 11 Betting Odds Report

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 12:22 PM GMT

Our Sunday best bet special is back, and so am I with two more NFL Picks for this Sunday’s games. The NFL Odds this week are loaded with value, and the games should be extremely exciting and fun to watch for the most part this weekend.

 

 

Follow along if you think these two picks are worthy of an add to your NFL Picks this weekend.

 

15th Nov
Friday's Odds Update

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Lions vs. Steelers

The Lions held off the Bears last week, while the Steelers were up against the Bills and they won also. This week the NFL Odds have the Lions as only -1 road favorites, and I can’t help but like the odds here.

Detroit’s pass rush should have a good game here against the Steelers’ offensive line, and even though they have underperformed this season getting sacks, the Detroit defense is still very capable of putting pressure onto Ben Roethlisberger in this game.

The Lions’ offense is also clicking right now much better than the Steelers have been. Despite LeVeon Bell’s emergence, the Steelers still struggle to run the ball some, and Roethlisberger is not in a position to throw for 400 yards every week and carry the team. Those days are over, and I don’t think every one has realized it yet.

Although they don’t play one another very often, the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is only 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Once again I think Pittsburgh is overvalued at home.

My Pick: Lions -1

[gameodds]16/227018/?r-1=43-19-349-192/us[/gameodds]

49ers vs. Saints

This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend, and even though some are stating that the Saints are a trap, I can’t help but like New Orleans here. I can’t see how you can look at how the 49ers have played over the last four weeks, along with their injuries and tell me they can cover/win in New Orleans. Sure they look good against the Cardinals, Titans and Jaguars, but last week against the Panthers, they put up a dud.

The Saints have been virtually unbeatable at home over the last several seasons, as they have started this year 5-0 ATS at home. They are also 22-8 ATS at home since 2010, making them the best home team ATS in the last three and a half seasons.

The Niners are hurting right now on offense, and going into the Super Dome is going to really test their offensive firepower. They got shut down against the Panthers at home last week, and the Saints may have less of a defense than Carolina, but they have twice the offense. San Francisco also might be without their best skill player, Vernon Davis, as he is still nursing a concussion.

The 49ers are 2-6 SU in their last eight, and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall against the Saints. Along with that, San Francisco is only 1-4 SU in their last five trips to New Orleans. I’m going with the home team in this one. I can’t see the 49ers putting it together enough this week to cover. They have beaten and loss to exactly who they were supposed to this season, and I’m afraid the Saints are on another level this season.

My Pick: Saints -3 

[gameodds]16/227027/?r-1=43-19-349-192/us[/gameodds]

14th Nov
Thursday's Odds Update

By: Jordan Sharp

 

One of the best week’s of the NFL season kicks off tonight, and even though none of the marquee matchups are this evening, let’s take a look at tonight’s Colts vs. Titans game, as well as some other NFL Odds for Week 11.

Colts vs. Titans

The NFL Odds have these two pretty close on a short week, as the Colts are anywhere from a -1 to a -2 ½ road favorite. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for the Titans, I’m not sure anyone knows what we’re going to get from that tonight. However the same could be said about the Colts right now after losing big to the Rams at home. Most people seem to think that the Colts will have a bounce-back game here on a short week, but ever since the loss of Reggie Wayne, the Colts have looked vulnerable. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them lose here tonight, and although I can’t recommend anything, I will say this spread has very little, if any value.

[gameodds]16/227015/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Vikings vs. Seahawks

One game I have yet to talk about is the Vikings heading to Seattle to play the Seahawks. If this game was happening at the beginning of the season, the Hawks might have been a -18 favorite, but with how they have played over the last few weeks, the Seahawks are anywhere from -11 ½ to -13 favorites here at home. They have a great shot at righting the ship here, and while I don’t think I could ever bring myself to bet on the Vikings, this spread is very volatile. Neither team seems to have upside, but if you can still get the Hawks at -11 ½ by weeks end, I might be convinced. 

[gameodds]16/227026/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

 

13th Nov
Wednesday's Odds Update

By: Jordan Sharp

 

We are almost to the start of Week 11, and what a week of football it is set to be! There are several marquee matchups this week in the NFL, so let’s take a look at some of the more headline grabbing games and see what the NFL Odds have in store for us. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos 

NFL fans and bettors alike have been waiting for this game, and in two of the next three weeks, we will be treated to the Chiefs and Broncos. This game is in Denver, and the NFL Odds are all over the place to start the week. The Broncos are anywhere from a -7 ½ to -9 ½ favorite in this game, and even if we’re assuming the spread settles in between those two numbers, that’s still a ton of points. If the thinking is that the Broncos will eventually get a lead and the Chiefs won’t be able to come back, I can buy that. However early money has gone on the Chiefs taking so many points, so I will make sure I check back by Friday to see if this line is giving more answers.

49ers vs. Saints

This NFC battle should be a good one, and the way it’s looking, it might be a preview of a divisional playoff game. The Saints are -3 favorites in the NFL Odds, and already this week I really like New Orleans. The 49ers are only 1-4 SU in their last five trips to New Orleans, and even though the Niners have covered their last three games against the Saints, no one can win at New Orleans this season, and the Niners are not exempt. Vernon Davis is still dealing with a concussion, and if the 49ers’ offense isn’t up to full speed, I think you have to like New Orleans here. 

 

 

12th Nov
Tuesday's Odds Update

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Check out SBRs NFL Week 11 Betting Odds Report

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins fell short to the Bucs on Monday night, giving Tampa their first win of the season, and on a short week they head back home to play San Diego. The Chargers played Denver in Week 10 and now the NFL Odds favor the road Chargers at -1, with a total of 45 ½. However San Diego hasn’t been the model of consistency on defense this season, and traveling all the way across country to play a panicking Dolphins team is going to be tough. I think laying off this spread might be the best idea for your NFL picks.

[gameodds]16/227020/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears

It looks like Jay Cutler might miss this game after hurting himself last week against the Lions, however the NFL Odds still have the Bears as -2 ½ favorites against the Ravens this week. Baltimore got a win this past week to keep their slim playoff chances alive still, and they have a great shot at the Bears this week with Cutler likely down. Chicago’s defense is very beatable, and even the Ravens’ offensive struggles could be solved by a trip to Chicago. The Ravens’ defense has been playing much better, and after last week against the Bengals, it seems as if that is the one unit for Baltimore playing with come consistency. I see the Ravens as having huge value here as slight underdogs.

[gameodds]16/227021/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

11th Nov
Opening Odds Report

By: Jordan Sharp

 

Let’s take a look at some of these opening odds for the NFL this week, and see if there is any early week value for our NFL picks.

Colts vs. Titans

The Titans took another hit to their offense this past week, and fears out of Nashville is that Jake Locker may be done for the season with a foot injury. However after getting beat down by the Rams in Indianapolis, the Colts are only a -3 favorite this week in Tennessee. Even after looking awful, the Colts seem to have solid sports betting value this week. They should be able to run on Tennessee, however it likely won’t be Trent Richardson doing it. Look for a good game, but I would lay points with the Colts.

Jets vs. Bills

Two New York teams face off on Sunday afternoon, and I expect the game to be a good one. The NFL Odds for this one opened at a pick em' with a very low total of 41 ½. While the spread on this game is a wash to me, the total is very telling on what kind of game this could be. We could see very little offense in this game. The Bills are still trying to establish themselves with EJ Manuel back under center, and the Jets are up and down week to week on offense. However the main constant for these two teams is defense, and I expect plenty of it for this game.

[gameodds]16/227016/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Redskins vs. Eagles

This game is going to go a long way (especially for the Eagles) to decide the playoff landscape in the NFC East. With their embarrassing loss to the Saints last night, the Cowboys and the Eagles are both tied for the division lead at 5-5 SU. If Washington wins this game on the road, they would only be a game back of the Cowboys. The NFL Odds for this game are close, favoring the Eagles at -3 ½, with a total of 52 ½. Washington could very well win this game, and the Eagles are going to need to play a great game in order to beat Washington. It will come down the quarterback play, and whoever plays better, Robert Griffin III or Nick Foles, their team will win this game. It will likely be a shootout.

[gameodds]16/227019/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Browns vs. Bengals

The Bengals apparently want to do everything they can to not win the AFC North, and things don’t get much easier this week as the Browns come to town. Cleveland had the week off in Week 10, and the NFL Odds favor the Bengals at -5.5, with a total of 45.5 I think the Browns may be very undervalued here coming off of their bye. Jason Campbell has not played bad at all since taking over under center in Cleveland, and the Bengals’ defense has not looked great over the last two weeks. Cincinnati has some big injuries to worry about on both sides of the ball, and with nothing to lose and a lot to gain (The Browns are firmly in the playoff hunt with a win here) I could easily see an upset here. 

[gameodds]16/227022/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]