LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the NFL odds for win totals in the 2013 season, so let’s see if we can squeeze some value sports picks out of a division with a very tough combined strength of schedule.
The Niners, Broncos and Patriots are the only three teams in the NFL with 11.5 win totals this season, and of the three, the 49ers by far have the toughest road to even hit 11 wins this year. The 49ers have the 9th ranked strength of schedule this season, and they sure start out the season with a bang. Their first three games are all against 2012 playoff teams, the Packers, Seahawks and Colts. They play four other games throughout the season against teams that made the playoffs last season, and after the loss of Michael Crabtree for the majority of the season, things are looking tougher for the Niners. They have fallen out as the favorite to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks, but they are still very capable of having a 12 win season as well.
I have been pretty hard on the Seahawks this offseason despite the fact that they are still a very good football team, but I am sticking to my theories. I think Seattle is overvalued in most spots in the NFL odds this offseason, and their season win totals are no different. The Hawks rank 11th in the NFL in strength of schedule, and they go on the road a lot early in the season. Three of their first five, five of their first eight, and six of their first ten games are on the road this season, and even though they are great at home, the tough road games at the beginning might wear on this younger team. I could see them starting the season 1-3 SU and not recovering, so at -110, the under might be the winning play for your NFL picks.
The Rams have an improved, but really young team this season, and they also have the 4th ranked strength of schedule. Because of the division they play in, and along with the fact they play the two South divisions this year, the Rams will be hard pressed to get to more than seven wins. The sportsbooks recognize that too. The Rams are chalked up to -140 if you want to bet the ‘Under’ on this particular future odd. Needless to say, with only two real “gimme” games at home against the Jaguars and Titans, I can’t see the Rams getting more than five other wins on their schedule, if that.
The Cards are an improved team this year especially on defense. However their offensive issues seem to have followed them into 2013, at least on paper. Carson Palmer is not likely the answer in Arizona, and it may not even matter if he is, because I don’t think they have improved their offensive line enough. That will not only affect their passing game, but more importantly their running game. There is probably going to be some low scoring games in Arizona this season, but there is also too much risk to take either side of this wager. The ‘Over’ is priced at +130, but getting six wins from this team with their schedule is a long shot, and the ‘Under’ is priced at -150, making it not even worth our time.
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