The future odds for a team can tell us a lot about what the books think about their overall value going into the 2013 season, and it can also give us an idea of which teams are under and overvalued.
San Francisco 49ers (+600 Super Bowl, +350 NFC)
The defending NFC champs come in as 6/1 favorites to win the Super Bowl this season courtesy of Bet365. If you’re a conventional thinker, the 49ers at 6/1 present some really nice value this season. They have reached the NFC Title game in the last two seasons and on paper they are the best team in the NFL. However experience does go a long way, and despite the much needed humbling shot of 2012, the 49ers are still not the most experienced playoff team in the NFC. They lost and added some nice pieces this offseason, and I fully expect them to win the division, because the team behind is concerning as well.
Seattle Seahawks (+800 Super Bowl, +400 NFC)
After yet another blockbuster offseason for the Seahawks, Seattle has its best shot at a Super Bowl since the 2005 season, and the bookmakers are taking notice. The Hawks added Cliff Avril to an already awesome defense and Percy Harvin to a now extremely dynamic offense. However are they too hyped this offseason? The short answer is yes. I believe the Seahawks will not be as good as their future odds expect of them, which would be a NFC Championship season or bust in the eyes of the organization. 11-5 ATS last season was tied with the best in the NFL for Seattle. Do you think that combined with the odds you’re looking at above here are going to make the Hawks have any value for your NFL picks? I don’t think so. Sell.
St. Louis Rams (+6600 Super Bowl, +4000 NFC)
St. Louis was another team that was widely undervalued in the offseason future odds before the 2012 season, and it translated into an 11-5 ATS season for the Rams, tied for the best in the NFL last year. This time last season the Rams’ NFL odds were 125/1 to win the Super Bowl, and as you can see those have been cut almost completely in half. Part of that is attributed to the Rams going 7-8-1 SU last season. Even though the Rams had a great ATS season last year, I don’t think that will all of a sudden make them overvalued like their Seattle counterpart who also went 11-5 ATS last season. However I could easily see the Rams at 9-7 ATS this season no problem.
Arizona Cardinals (+10,000 Super Bowl, +5000 NFC)
The Cardinals come in as the bottom feeder in this conference. Arizona could do little to nothing last season going 5-11 SU and 7-8-1 ATS. They did finish strong, but now a new head coach and an older new quarterback take the reigns. I do expect them to be a little better than their future odds suggest, but not too much. Carson Palmer is a huge question mark heading into the season, and his play will be the reason they are under or overvalued. There is too much uncertainty for me to recommend anything with this team as they currently stand. Maybe some Larry Fitzgerald prop bets, but other than that there is nothing.