NFL Picks for NFC Season Win Totals: Line Movement in Early Stages of Free Agency

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, April 1, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 1, 2015 6:51 PM UTC

With over a month of betting into this often vibrant marketplace, let’s now look at updated movement for the AFC teams in the second of this 2-part Futures Book series.

CG Technology pretty much beat everyone to the punch this year, releasing its opening Season Team Win Totals odds incredibly quickly after the end of the 2014 season and Super Bowl XLIX, and the Las Vegas sportsbook operator has seen a decent amount of early action on these Futures bets, although just two of the NFL’s 32 teams—the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers—have actually seen the posted Total number of games change in early trading. Most bets made this early on are done in reaction to offseason moves made since Free Agency got underway—although some are often just made with the heart for NFL fans betting on their own teams—and with the NFL Draft (April 30-May 2, NFL-TV) still a month away, there will obviously still be much more movement to come with the NFL Kickoff Weekend still more than five months away. Let’s dive on into the line movement (through March 12) in the CG Technology NFL Season Team Win Total odds right now for the NFC, and try to find some valuable NFL picks in the meantime.

NFC—Recent (March 12) and (Opening) CG Technology Odds


Our expert handicapper also previews the AFC Season Total Wins

What Moved, How Much and Maybe Why
Whereas only five AFC saw their odds move somewhat significantly and only one actually saw a move in the team’s actual posted number—the Indianapolis Colts up ½ game from 9½ to 10 wins—as we saw in Part 1 (NFC) of this 2-part NFL Season Team Win Totals breakdown, the vast majority (13) of the 16 NFL teams who call the NFC home saw some significant early movement from bettors at sportsbooks using CG Technology’s NFL Season Win Total odds. In alphabetical order, the Arizona Cardinals (10¢), Atlanta Falcons (25¢) and Carolina Panthers (40¢) all saw action on the Over (Read positive perceptions of any player or even coaching transactions to date), while the public said “Boo” to Da Bears, dropping the odds on its Over (7 wins) a healthy 25¢. Safe to say, the Public didn’t love the move to re-sign QB Jay Cutler and the departure of Free Agent WR Brandon Marshall (Jets) probably didn’t help either. And strangely, but maybe not so strangely, the NFL odds on the Dallas Cowboys remained motionless (-115 on both Over and Under), despite prolific RB DeMarco Murray (Eagles) leaving America’s Team for the City of Brotherly Love last month.


In the NFC North, besides The Current Bears Fear, the Detroit Lions have seen a 20¢ move in the Under’s way (read negative perceptions), no doubt from losing the deemed #1 Free Agent in this year’s NFL Free Agent marketplace, NT Ndamukong Suh (Dolphins). Detroit did sign Haloti Ngata (Ravens) to fill that spot on its starting DL, but trying to replace Suh is nearly an impossible thing, thus the downward movement in The Motor City. On the other hand, bettors loved the fact that the Green Bay Packers (+800, to win Super Bowl 50, BetVictor) re-signed Free Agents WR Randall Cobb and T Bryan Bulaga sending the juice on the Over (9½ wins) up 30¢ for the Cheeseheads. Parlez-vous Wisçonsite? A state over in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, where Prince makes purple music all day and night like the Keebler Elves make cookies (allegedly) in that little tree, the Minnesota Vikings saw their Over odds jump even higher (45¢) than the Packers had...maybe because management seems to want to fight to try to keep star RB Adrian Peterson playing for them and maybe a little bit from the signing of (seemingly perpetual) Free Agent WR Mike Wallace (Dolphins). Or maybe it was because the Vikings number was set at 6½ and not 7. Who knows. Usually it’s a combination of different things that all add up to have a line or odds a set Future Book Season Win Total number actually move they way they do by a given sportsbook. And maybe at one point, with odds set at -175 (on either an Over or Under), a mere $100 may finally tip the scale and move an actual number like what has happened already here with the colts and the 49ers.


CG Technology NFL Season Team Win Totals Future bettors weren’t too fond of the moves the New Orleans Saints (-30¢ = movement toward Under), New York Giants (-5¢) and the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (-20¢, +350, Bwin) have made so far this offseason, while both the Philadelphia Eagles (+50¢)—who landed the aforementioned 1,000-yard rushing RB Murray from the Cowboys (20/1, Ladbrokes)—the St. Louis Rams (+15¢) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+35¢) all saw favorable action from their offseason moves to date.


But it was the San Francisco 49ers—quite logically—with all the moves that they have had to date, who saw their Season Team Win Total actually drop a half-game (½) from 8½ to 8 due to a freakishly strange number of things which have already happened to this team, including the departure of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to his alma mater, the University of Michigan; Free Agent RB Frank Gore signing with the Indianapolis Colts; Free Agent WR Michael Crabtree still apparently looking like he wants to leave the team; and, the retirements of LBs Patrick Willis (all-Pro) and 24-year-old Chris Borland, the latter citing fears of Head Trauma as the reason he was leaving the 49ers and the game of professional football after just one season in the NFL. Losing so much, having a new stadium in which the team must get used to and which is actually located in Santa Clara, and trying to deal with a starting QB like Colin Kaepernick who seems like he could be A Never-Ending Rebuilding Project In The Bay, all probably combined to bettors firing on the 49ers Under 8½, thus driving their Season Team Win Total to where it is now at 8 (Over -120). Who knows what happens with the 49ers, but odds are their 2015 NFL Season Team Win Total won’t return back to that 8½ where it opened several weeks ago at CG Technology.

Season Team Win Total Pick: Green Bay Packers Over 9½ -175 (CG Technology)
Previous Season Team Win Total Pick—NFC: Washington Redskins Under 6 -115 (CG Technology)

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