Let’s take a look at who LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has as the division favorite, and more importantly, which of these four teams has the most value for our sports picks.
New York Giants (+150)
The Giants are the default favorite this offseason because of the Cowboys’ ineptitude and Robert Griffin III’s knee, but at just 3/2, do the Giants hold any betting value? They are still dealing with the uncertainty of whether or not they will have their Pro Bowl slot receiver back in the fold for 2013, and 3/2 is not that enticing in something that has as many variables as a future NFL odds bet. If we were talking about +250, then the Giants would have value, but +150 is nothing to get excited about. I think we have to get a little more certainty with the Giants before we put them in the value category.
Washington Redskins (+240)
If it wasn’t for the one knee of RG3, this would be my divisional bet of the offseason, but that one knee is holding me back from this one as it stands now. However, if we are still getting these numbers two months from now right before the preseason, I would be willing to reconsider my restraint if positive word is out on Griffin’s recovery. It all hinges on it. They were able to keep their offensive line intact from last season, which was part of the reason the Skins led the league in rushing in 2012. All in all, if the knee is a go, I’m all over +240 for the Skins to win this division in 2013.
Dallas Cowboys (+240)
The perennially overvalued Cowboys come in at +240 as well this offseason to win the NFC East, but where I see the value in +240 with the Skins, there should be little to no reason why the Cowboys should be +240 to win this division. I understand at this point in the offseason it seems as if this is the tightest division in regards to standings, but it might not be that way. Dallas looks overvalued this offseason, and that normally translates into a bad futures and game odds bets. Dallas was one of the six teams with the worst ATS records in 2012, as the Cowboys went 6-10 ATS.
Philadelphia Eagles (+500)
The Eagles are the big underdog at +500, but considering other divisions have their big underdogs at +2000 or higher, I think the Eagles can be happy where they stand considering how bad of a 2012 season they had both SU and ATS. Not only did the Eagles go 4-12 SU, they went 3-12-1 ATS, a cashing rate of barely 22%. Philly has a ways to go before they have value in the offseason future odds, and with a new head coach, the uncertainty grows with this team. The value is simply not there at this point.