NFL Picks: New York Jets Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 24, 2015 2:49 PM GMT

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the New York Jets.

 


The 2015 NFL gets under way Thursday night, September 10th, and in an attempt to help you with your NFL picks, we are presenting daily team profiles well in advance of that Kickoff Weekend. Today we are profiling the New York Jets, who finished 4-12 in 2014 and in last place in the AFC East.

First, here is a summary of the New York betting statistics over the past five seasons. Take note these stats are for regular season games only.

 

New York Jets Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home    Away    Overall  
ATS Overall  20-20  17-20-3    37-40-3   
ATS Favorite  11-15  7-5  18-20
ATS Underdog  9-5  10-15-3  19-20-3
Avg. Margin  +0.5  -6.3  -2.9
Over – Under  20-19-1    25-15  45-34-1
Avg. Total Score    41.5  44.3  42.9

 

The Jets actually have a slightly favorable AMOV at home of +0.5 points per game compared to a negative -6.3 points on the road, but it is interesting that they have somehow gone 7-5 ATS as road favorites. Their worst ATS split though has been as road underdogs at 40.0 percent. Also note how surprisingly high scoring New York road games have been with the ‘over’ hitting at a 62.5 percent clip.
Key Trend: The ‘over’ is 26-11, 70.3 percent in all New York Jets games when coming off of an ATS win.

Up next we take a look at the Jets’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

 

2014 New York Jets Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  17.7  28th  25.1  24th
Rushing  142.4  3rd  93.1  5th
Yds. Per Rush    4.5  7th  3.8  6th
Passing  184.1  32nd  234.1  14th
Yds Per Pass  5.9  30th  7.0  19th
Total Yards  326.6  22nd  327.2  7th
Yds. Per Play  5.2  28th  5.6  19th

 

Note that the Jets has both one of the best rushing offenses and one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL last season, but that did not prevent a 4-12 record and fourth place finish, which ultimately cost former coach Rex Ryan his job. The biggest issue was ranking dead last in the league in passing offense, although Geno Smith did end the year in style totally out of the blue, passing for 358 yards in the season finale in Miami.

And now here is a peek at various New York Jets Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.

 

2015 New York Jets NFL Futures

   5 Dimes    Bookmaker    Bovada    Heritage  
Super Bowl Odds    +6600  +4800  +5000  +6500
AFC Conf. Odds  +2500  +2424  +2200  +2400
AFC East Odds  +1035  +815  +750  +1000
Win Total  7½ ov-150    7½ ov-160   7½ ov-135    7½ ov-160  

 

The odds to win the AFC East project the Jets to finish in last place again, although their posted win total at least suggests a few more wins this year. Still, they figure to have the same major flaw as last year, with that being inadequate quarterback play.

 

New York Jets Key Additions
Speaking of quarterback play, the Jets added Ryan Fitzpatrick to push Smith, but does it really matter? The Jets did add talent at the other offensive skill positions though in wide receiver Brandon Marshall and running backs Zac Stacy and Stevan Ridley.

And the New York could have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. Their front seven should be ferocious under new coach Tedd Bowles, the former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator, thanks to adding defensive lineman Leonard Williams in the NFL Draft. And the secondary added quality cornerbacks in Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromarite and Buster Skrine, as well as safety Marcus Gilchrist.

New York Jets Key Losses
The Jets lost running back Chris Johnson, wide receiver Percy Harvin and quarterback Michael Vick from a year ago, but all three of those may be considered “addition by subtraction” considering they were all cancers in the locker room. Losses on the defense included nose tackle Kenrick Ellis, linebacker Nick Bellore and cornerbacks Kyle Wilson and Phillip Adams, although the latter two should not be missed given the veteran cornerback additions.