We've already gone through their dismal NFL future odds to win the Super Bowl and the AFC, as well as their odds to win the AFC East. However now it's time to take a look at a bet that almost always has value in one way or the other in the NFL, and that is season win totals. The Jets are set at 6 ½ wins this offseason by LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Either way you go with this the bet it’s at -110 in the NFL Odds, so should we look at the Jets with the under or over in mind?
From the broader perspective the Jets don't have that bad of a season in 2013. However things could go very bad, very quickly in New York, because the first part of their schedule is brutal. The Jets face Tampa Bay in Week 1 at home, followed by their annual trip to New England in Week 2. Then after a home game against Buffalo and a road trip to Tennessee, the Jets follow that with five games in a row against potential playoff teams. The Jets could very well find themselves 1-8 SU by the time their bye rolls around, and that could spell the end of Rex Ryan’s job. Those games are at Atlanta and Cincinnati, and home against Pittsburgh, New England and New Orleans.
If they can somehow weather the storm of their first eight weeks, the latter half of their schedule is much easier. I could see them going 3-5 or maybe even 4-4 SU in the first half of their schedule if things go very well, but the Jets are going to be thrown right into it this offseason, and I doubt they come up swimming. The good news is if they can somehow survive the first half, their final eight opponents had a combined winning percentage of 41% in the 2012 season SU.
The Jets play Tampa at home in Week 1, and the NFL Odds opened the Jets as slight +1 underdogs, but now the lines have moved to favor the Bucs by -2. New York was very overvalued last season at home going 3-5 ATS in 2012, and they were 1-2 ATS in this same spot as home underdogs.
Tampa Bay’s defense is going to be smothering people this season. They were statistically the best run defense in the NFL last season, and with Darrelle Revis coming back to potentially play his old team, the Jets might be in trouble. If you remember back to last season, the Bucs were 7-1 ATS on the road. They were always slightly undervalued on the road, and I think the early NFL Odds are doing it yet again.
The Sharp Pick
I’m seeing a pretty dismal season for the Jets in 2013. The offense won’t be able to move the ball, and even though I like some of the improvements on defense like adding Dawan Landry and resigning Calvin Pace, I can’t see the Jets getting more than six wins this season. They have gotten worse this offseason from a year ago when they went 6-10 SU, and the only games on their schedule that I can confidently point at and say it’s wins are Buffalo, Oakland and Cleveland at home. That’s about it for the Jets and our SU NFL picks for them.
My Pick: UNDER 6 ½ -110
Week 1 Lean: Bucs -130 at Bet 365