Super Bowl (+10,000)
Only the Raiders and the Jaguars have worse odds to win the Super Bowl this season, and the future in general looks bleak for the Jets’ franchise. They just let go Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez looks like he could be the next to go, and their head coach is almost certainly a lame duck this upcoming season. Are the Jets appropriately priced, yes they are. However I believe New York is still overvalued in one area this season.
For more of our thoughts on this year's future odds check out our NFL picks page.
Let’s be honest, the Jets might not even win more than four or five games this season. They have a really tough schedule despite having to play the Bills twice a season. I could realistically see this team going 3-13 this season. Then why are NFL odds makers giving them so much credit going into the season? Obviously +3300 is not great by any means, but Tennessee and Buffalo both have worse AFC future odds, and both of those teams might have better records due to strength of schedule. Let’s be honest, it doesn’t look good on any means.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Jets will be competitive this season, and I think New York being overvalued in the AFC future odds might be a slight indicator of how they will be valued once the season rolls around in four months. A lot can change between now and September 1st.
While I’ve been bashing them this whole time, allow me to install some optimism, I think they drafted well this year. Dee Milliner will eventually be around the same caliber as Darrelle Revis, and who knows, Geno Smith could end up being a solid quarterback early in his career, but this season is almost over before it begins in New York.
I also think they addressed one of their biggest concerns, which was get some big bodies up front on both sides of the ball. Sheldon Richardson is going to be a monster at DT and they also got two OTs back to back in the 3rd and 5th rounds, along with another DT in the 6th round.
However, it’s time to sell away on the Jets this season, as well as when the actual season rolls around. The Jets are probably going to be overvalued even though everything looks bleak, and we will fade them with joy. With an implied probability of less than 1% however, the Jets would be throwing your money away if you bet them in May or any time really in the future odds. Better save your money for the hotdogs and parking tickets, New Yorkers, as this team will not pull through for any bettors looking to strike gold with their NFL picks.