LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Giants at +150 to win the NFC East this season, well more than the +240 price the Redskins and Cowboys both have from the sportsbooks. So at +150, do we have value in the Giants this season, despite the fact they got beat out as even bigger favorites just a season ago?
I’m not quite sold on the Giants for several reasons, the main one being the fact that +150 holds little to no value in an NFL divisional future odds bet. There are going to be numerous opportunities for a +150 or better single game bet on an underdog this upcoming season, and I’m sure a bunch of those will have ten times the value that a future NFL odds bet of +150 would have. There are too many variables in a future odds bet to take something anywhere close to even money or laying money. It’s simply not a good wager.
The Giants should be the favorites of this division, don’t get me wrong. I also think they have a great shot at winning the division, but the cost/risk factor of backing them with our NFL picks is not enough to get me to bite. I’d much rather bet a small underdog at those odds during the season.
Speaking of the season, the Giants were 7-8-1 ATS in 2012, which counts the now fourth year in a row the Giants have not been profitable ATS. The last time they were was in 2008 when they went 12-4 both SU and ATS.
For New York in 2012 however, it’s not just the bad divisional future odds that is scaring me away. The fact that they still don’t have both of their starting wide receivers in camp is starting to be a little concerning, especially because one of them still doesn’t have a contract. On top of that, they are likely going to not have Ahmad Bradshaw back helping to run the ball, which is going to yet again put more pressure and shares of the offense onto Eli Manning. Bradshaw and Cruz both led the Giants in rushing and receiving yards respectfully last season.
While I don’t like their divisional future odds, I do think the Giants could be a solid team to back with our sports picks this season SU and possibly ATS. As I stated above, it’s been a while since the Giants have been profitable ATS, but this season could be the year they go back to being undervalued if the right things fall into place. This division is wide open, and while that plays well for the Giants and their season, it only hurts us in a future odds bet.They need to get Cruz signed as soon as possible, but when that happens I think we can start to feel better about their value heading into the 2013 season, which is less than 100 days away.