The Saints have a great shot at getting back on the winning side of things this season, so will they be able to rebound from their 7-9 SU performance just a season ago? LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas sure thinks so, as they have handicapped the Saints to 9 wins this season, with both sides of the NFL Odds at -110.
Looking for more info on NFC South team season wins? Read our report!
According to the NFL strength of schedule rankings, the Saints’ potential road back to the playoffs is going to be a tough one. The Saints rank third in the NFL in strength of schedule, but after a deeper look at their opponents this season, it’s mostly their road games that are the toughest. San Francisco and Atlanta will be their toughest home games by far, but other than that, their home record should be very good this season both SU and ATS. They start off the season with one of those tough home games too, playing the Falcons in Week 1.
The Saints were 3-5 SU last season on the road, and that ended up being their eventual downfall. This season things won’t get much easier for New Orleans. On top of their three tough road division games, the Falcons add on the Bears, Patriots and Seahawks to their road games this season. Although I expect the Saints to be much better than a year ago, their defense is going to be tested under Rob Ryan all season.
How does New Orleans measure up against the rest of the NFC South this season?
The Saints are -2.5 and even -3 favorites in the NFL odds for Week 1 against the Falcons, with a total of 54 points. This could be the best game of the Week 1 schedule, and even though I am very tempted by the spread, I think the total holds more value for our Week 1 NFL picks.
The Saints implementing a new defense will likely be shaky at first, and I think that will give the Falcons a window to score some points, even though they are on the road. On top of that, both of these offenses have added another dynamic this season. The Falcons added Steven Jackson to their running attack, and the Saints of course were able to bring back the mastermind of their offense, Sean Payton. Neither team has much of a defense still, and because it is Week 1 of the season, I see offense ruling over defense early in the season.
The Sharp Pick
Even though they have a tougher schedule, the Saints also have some easy games this season. Getting to play the AFC East and NFC West is more of a blessing than a curse this season for the Saints, and even if they falter against the better teams, I think the Saints will turn things around and get to 10 wins once again. I see them dominating mostly at home, which will lead to the ‘Over’ holding some value for your sports picks this offseason.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 9 -110
Week 1 Lean: ‘Over’ 54 at William Hill