The NFL futures odds have the Saints very modestly priced going into the 2013 season, so will that translate into them being under or overvalued when the season comes?
Since 2009, the Saints have gotten close to wining another Super Bowl, but things never seemed to go their way. Last season was almost as disappointing as the season prior to 2009 for New Orleans. The Saints finished 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS and out of the playoffs for the first time since before their Super Bowl season in 2009. The price for them this season is somewhat surprising in the NFL odds. The Saints are priced the same as the Steelers and Ravens, but priced below seven other teams at Bet 365. I’m selling on a Saints Super Bowl this season however. There are just too many holes still left to fill, despite the fact that the head-coaching hole has been filled.
This price is a bit more reasonable, and though I will stop short in saying that I think the Saints could win the NFC, this price might trick some people into thinking it too. The Saints are still going to have trouble in the most or all of the areas they had trouble in last season, and that is not going to bode well for a team that plays in the NFC. The Saints could not stop anyone on the ground or through the air last season, and they were 25th in the league in running the football, despite all of the running backs on their roster. While their pass defense as well as pass rush has gotten a lot better this offseason, their running game nor their running defense seems to have gotten any better. This might lead to the Saints being overvalued if we somehow forget about how bad their defense really was last season.
If New Orleans is going to do anything this season other than go 8-8 both SU and ATS, they are going to have to prove balance on offense and consciousness on defense. If both of those things were to come true this season, the Saints would have great value at 10/1 for our NFL picks to win the conference, but I’m selling once again.
I think people will look at the Saints and see that Sean Peyton is back and everything will go right back to normal. I don’t think that’s the case. This team has not gotten that much better from their 7-9 SU season last year without Peyton, and even though they have gotten better, the NFC is not the conference you want to play in when you’re at best an 8-8 team trying to make the playoffs. The Bears missed the playoffs last season at 10-6 because of a tiebreaker. I just don’t think the Saints will have much value outside of to possible Brees prop bet.