NFL Picks: New England Patriots Win Totals & Game-by-Game Predictions

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 8:36 PM GMT

Las Vegas Season Win Totals for defending champions New England Patriots are in full swing. Find out where the total line stands and how the NFL odds stack up on the heels of the ongoing Deflategate saga.

Patriots Third Overall Faves
Depending on your choice sportsbook platform, you'll find the defending champions New England Patriots assessed anywhere from fourth overall favorites at +850 (Bovada) or as low as co-second faves with the Green Bay Packers at +700 (Bet365) NFL odds for Super Bowl 50 futures. Clearly, the Patriots haven't fallen entirely out of favor, despite the four-game suspension handed down to Tom Brady following the findings of Ted Wells' Deflategate report. They are still considered legitimate contenders in their title defense campaign and a team to be reckoned with. However, there's obvious disparity in their assessment from book to book, which is telling.

These inconsistencies on the NFL odds board transcend AFC Championship futures as well, with those sportsbooks that advanced the Colts in Super Bowl 50 betting markets replicating the move in AFC Conference futures as well, all in the name of symmetry. For instance, the Indianapolis Colts are the top faves in the AFC at Bovada, matched at +375 NFL odds to win outright, nudging slightly ahead of the New England Patriots at +400 NFL odds. While at bet365, the Patriots are joint second overall faves in Super Bowl 50 betting and they remain the top faves (for now) at +333 NFL odds to win the AFC Championship

Unanimous NFL odds can be found in AFC East betting markets, where the Patriots remain the faves to win the AFC East crown at -150 NFL odds, a good distance ahead of Miami (+400), Buffalo (+425) and NY Jets (+750). Thus far, that's the only place where NFL bettors will find agreement on the sports betting floor.

 

Tom Brady Suspension Hurts Patriots?
On the heels of Tom Brady's four-game suspension, which – it's worth bearing in mind – may yet be reduced or overturned by Roger Goodell before the season kicks off, their season win totals remain relatively intact, with some sportsbooks staying on the opening 10.5 wins while others coming down only a smidgen to 10 wins. Bovada's NFL odds board features the former with the OVER trading at -105 and the UNDER trading at -125 NFL odds.

Fact: the Patriots have won fewer than 11 games only twice since 2003, and in the last five years they're averaging 12.6 wins, which includes a run of 12-4 SU over the last three seasons. Of course the Tom Brady suspension puts the Patriots into a tight spot, but would you still bet against Bill Belichick?

 

Can Patriots Defy The NFL Odds And Go Over?
Winning all 16 games on a season is no mean feat, but the Patriots have the roster to do it. Put another way: their 2015 NFL schedule is winnable on paper, ranked 22nd in the Strength of Schedule Chart.

To be fair, the Patriots are going to have a target on their backs. Not just because they are the Super Bowl Champions and opponents would love nothing better than to get the measure of them, but also because some are of the opinion they are "cheaters" and will want to make a statement by upsetting them on the field.

Will the Patriots defy the NFL odds and go OVER 10.5 wins? Arguably, they'll need to at least win half of the games Brady is slated to miss at the start of the season in order to stand a chance of reaching double-digits by season end in the win column. So let's find out, shall we as we preview each game on the schedule and serve up our NFL predictions and NFL picks.

 

Week 1: vs. Pittsburgh (home), Thursday, Sept 10 at 8:30 PM
This should have been a sensational season opener with Tom Brady and the Patriots taking a lap of honour at Gillette Stadium. As it is, Tom Brady will be sat on the sidelines, giving way to the Garoppolo Era for the first four games of the season while he serves his suspension. That is unless the suspension is somehow overturned pending appeal. Other notable absentees in this game are going to be LeGarrette Blount and Le'Veon Bell (Steelers teammates busted for marijuana last season, although the former is now a Patriots player) and the Patriots will also be without Revis and Browner, to name a few of the dearly departing, if you will.

After a standout regular season for Ben Roethlisberger in 2014, there are many NFL bettors that are probably going to hang their hats on his experience rather than trust second-year back up Jimmy Garoppolo to get the job done. If Robert Kraft can't muster up a ringing endorsement for Brady's understudy why would anybody else. But that's what sport is all about. Plenty athletes have been thrown into mix well before they were deemed "ready," only to shock the world and surprise. Besides, this is a home game and Bill Belichick is a genius tactician. We wouldn't go so far as to writing them off just yet. Perhaps, we'll change our mind after preseason games are done and dusted... For now, it's a home game. And the Patriots deserve the benefit of doubt for our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 1-0

 

Week 2: vs. Buffalo (road), Sunday, Sept 20 at 1 PM
Merely a week after opening the season against the Colts, the Buffalo Bills have to face the Patriots. Back-to-back AFC Championship faves is equivalent to drawing the short straw. It remains to be seen how well Rex Ryan's revamped Bills fare in both these games. They certainly have the defensive ability to keep the opposing quarterback in check -- they've had some measure of success against Brady in the past. But their lack of a viable quarterback could be the decider. As it is, they're hanging their hat on either EJ Manuel or Matt Cassel. Yikes.

We've yet to see what Garoppolo is made of, but we'd be willing to wager that he might be a lot better than EJ Manuel. One thing is certain, this is a divisional game Belichick will want to win if the Patriots are to stand a chance in 2015. He's going to do whatever he can tactically to cover Brady's absence in the game. It's a long shot NFL pick (we know) but we're going with the Patriots again here.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 2-0

 

Week 3: vs. Jacksonville (home). Sunday, Sept 27 at 1 PM
On paper, this is a home game the Patriots should win hands down even with back-up Garoppolo calling the shots. Their team is that much deeper. No disrespect to the Jaguars, but until proven otherwise, they are just a 3-13 SU team that went 0-8 SU on the road last season. They've made some good moves in the offseason, bringing in Julius Thomas and Sergio Brown, amongst others. But we're yet to see how those work out. (For instance, Jets brought in Percy Harvin last year, for all the good it did them). The overwhelming consensus is the Jaguars are on the right path, but a few years away from being considered legitimate contenders. That should be on display here, never more so if Brady's suspension does in fact get reduced to two games and he's cleared to play against Jaguars.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 3-0

 

Week 4: Bye

 

Week 5: vs. Dallas (road), Sunday, Oct 11 at 4:25 PM
Brady or Garoppolo? That's going to make a huge difference here. If it's the former, the Patriots stand a chance to win on the road. If it's the latter, it's a Hail Mary. Tony Romo is coming off one of his best seasons and Dez Bryant is one of the most talented wide receivers in the game. Add to that a pretty potent offensive line and the Patriots will have a huge challenge before them in Dallas. Working on the worst-case assumption that it's Garoppolo leading the Patriots at AT&T, we're going to have to go against the Patriot on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 3-1

 

Week 6: vs. Indianapolis (road), Sunday, Oct 18 at 8:30 PM
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE! This is THE MUST-SEE game of the NFL season, the one that everybody has circled since the NFL schedule came out and the Deflategate ramifications were revealed. The DEFLATEGATE REMATCH...

It's not without a touch of irony that Brady's suspension (in its current four-game form) ends the week before his Patriots are headed to Indy for Primetime Football. The NFL couldn't have scripted it better: back in time to face the team that kicked off the deflate-gate fuss and sent the Patriots down the catwalk of shame. The Patriots are flipping mad right now. And you can bet they will be out for blood. What better place than to do it at Lucas Oil Stadium, let the air out of their sanctimonious bubble, if you will. Consider the Patriots' solid record against the Colts during the Luck Era, there's no reason to assume they won't get their revenge.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 4-1

 

Week 7: vs. NY Jets (home) Sunday, Oct 25 at 1 PM
The Patriots are back home in week 7 NFL betting, hopefully with inflated egos after routing the Colts and deflating the boisterous crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium. A date with divisional rivals Jets is going to be a reunion with Darelle Revis as the cornerback has returned to his old stomping ground. The Jets also boast Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, amongst others, which makes them attractive in key positions. Still, the quarterback position is dicey with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith and rookie Bryce Petty. The sum of all their parts could give the Patriots some headaches, but Brady has his own weapons like Rob Gronkowski to go to in order to take the win at Gillette Stadium.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 5-1

 

Week 8: vs. Miami (home), Thursday, Oct 29 at 8:25 PM
Last year, the Dolphins and Patriots split the series with each side winning at home. The Patriots were in the ascendancy in the season opener with the Dolphins, only for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins to rally and take the shocking 33-20 win. Patriots returned the favor by winning at home, but they were never really challenged in the 41-13 rout. In recent seasons, this has been the better AFC East rivalry in our opinion. Sure to get better with the ongoing improvements in Miami, but  winning at Gillette Stadium is a tall order for the Dolphins. Patriot have to be the smart NFL pick here.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 6-1

 

Week 9: vs. Washington (home), Sunday, Nov 8 at 1 PM
The Washington Redskins are sure to enter as the long shots on the NFL odds board in week 9 NFL betting. The quarterback situation is a right mess. RGIII is disappointing to say the least and alternatives such as Kirk Cousins are not up to snuff. Not enough consistent production from their shot-callers and a suspect offensive line and porous defensive line leads to only one conclusion: a blowout at Gillette Stadium by the Patriots.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 7-1

 

Week 10: vs. NY Giants (road), Sunday, Nov 15 at 4:25 PM
Based on the NY Giants' account last year, which was a paltry 6-10 on the season, few NFL bettors are holding out much hope for them in 2015, never mind against the defending Super Bowl champions in week 10 NFL betting. Yet, this is one inter-conference rivalry that somehow lives up to the hype and billing.

There were some positives the Giants showed last year, the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. springs to mind. Eli Manning seems to be getting used to McAdoo's offensive system. If the Giants can bolster their roster further in the offseason and Eli Manning keeps his mistakes in check, they could give the Patriots a serious run for their money. The more we think on it, this could be one of those games that simply goes against the grain and against NFL betting perceptions that are almost entirely found in last season's accounts. It could go either way, really. Giants have home advantage, so one has to like their chances. Of course, nobody would be surprised if the Patriots come through with the win in NFL betting markets.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 8-1

 

Week 11: vs. Buffalo (home), Monday, Nov 23 at 8:30 PM
Week 11 NFL betting features Rex Ryan's return to Gillette Stadium, this time as the Buffalo Bills head coach. He's not had many happy memories here, nor is that likely to change without a viable quarterback. Let's not forget, the Patriots have an irreproachable home record these past few seasons. Granted last year's season-ending home loss to the Bills denied the Patriots another home sweep, but it was a meaningless game with the Patriots already confirmed as the AFC top seed.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 9-1

 

Week 12: vs. Denver (road), Sunday, Nov 29 at 8:30 PM
This is going to be the toughest road test the Patriots face, even tougher than facing the Dallas Cowboys in week 5 NFL betting.  It's a short week following Monday's game with the Bills. A road trip to their biggest AFC rivals over the last few seasons and to a stadium where wins don't come easy for opponents. Last year, Tom Brady and Co., routed the Denver Broncos at Gillette Stadium. It's payback time. Peyton Manning and the Broncos will pull out all the stops and hand the Patriots one of their few defeats in 2015.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 9-2

 

Week 13: vs. Philadelphia (home), Sunday, Dec 6 at 4:25 PM
It's a home game, so NFL bettors will like the Patriots' chances. On the other hand, it's hard to predict what Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles will have up their sleeves. The quarterback carousel is a dizzying selection right now with a whole slew of options still in play from Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley to the resurrected Tim Tebow and the oft injured Sam Bradford, who Kelly recently acquired in a trade for Nick Foles with the Rams. The Eagles took on DeMarco Murray from the Cowboys and Byron Maxwell from the Seahawks' Legion of Boom...

It's a bit of a tossup, especially as the NFL season winds down and games become more important in the broad spectrum of the playoff picture. Since it's a home game, we have to go with the Patriots on our NFL picks.. Not until we actually see the revamped Eagles in play can we truly know whether Chip Kelly's offseason manoeuvring is the act of pure genius or wildly optimistic insanity.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 10-2

 

Week 14: vs. Houston (road), Sunday, Dec 13 at 1 PM
Houston's defense can give Tom Brady headaches, which sets up a rather interesting prospect on the NFL odds board in week 14 NFL betting. By and large, the expectation is going to be a Patriots win. There are those NFL bettors that will like Texans' chances though and we have to concede they might have a point.

Bill O'Brien spent a good stretch with the Patriots (2007-2011) before becoming the Texans head coach. So, he'll know a thing or two about the team to game-plan successfully. This could be closer the NFL odds makers would have you believe.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 10-3

 

Week 15: vs. Tennessee (home), Sunday, Dec 20 at 1 PM
To be fair, the Titans needn't bother making the long trek to New England in the dead of winter. They might as well just throw in the towel and give the win to the Patriots. Save themselves the bother and humiliation of what is sure to be an evisceration on the snow-covered field at Gillette Stadium. There's only one obvious NFL pick for this game.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 11-3

 

Week 16: vs. NY Jets (road), Sunday, Dec 27 at 1 PM
It would be a mistake to assume the NY Jets would rollover like welcome mats when Tom Brady and the Patriots visit. Last year, they played the Patriots close despite losing both games, 27-25 and 17-16. Still, that was Rex Ryan's game planning, if anything. What to expect from the Jets this season remains to be seen, although they've stocked up on ammunition in the offseason. We return to the quarterback position as the sticking point for the Jets. Brady finds a way to win in NY Jets and lift the Patriots to another victory.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 12-3

 

Week 17: vs. Miami (road), Sunday, Jan 3 at 1 PM
Finally, the last game of the regular season is on the NFL betting board and if the Patriots live up to our expectations, they'll be cruising to the finish line in the Miami heat. (Well, it'll be warmer there than it is in New England in January).  Last year, the Patriots opened the season with a 30-20 loss in Miami, a game that they should have won based on the way they started. But credit must be given to the Dolphins for the way they rallied against Brady and Co. That was the first game of the season however.

Patriots are well known to finish season's strong while the Dolphins run out of steam. Dolphins lost five of their last eight games in 2014. The year before they lost four of their last eight games, including their last two of the season to divisional rivals Bills and Jets.

By week 17 NFL betting, the Dolphins will have faced five teams in seven games that finished above .500 , four of which were playoff contenders. It's a tough stretch with the Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, Ravens, Giants, Chargers and Colts before it's capped off with the Super Bowl champions. The Dolphins may have nothing left for the Patriots.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 13-3

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Clearly, we're colouring the Patriot's season in a rosy hue. So optimistic are we that the Patriots will defy the NFL odds, we're projecting a 13-3 SU season by this game-by-game NFL betting preview. So, to answer the question that got the ball rolling: will the Patriots go OVER 10.5 wins? Yes. We think so and, as such, we're recommending the OVER 10.5 for your NFL picks at -105.

Two main reasons for projecting such a bright future is the fact that a) Tom Brady's suspension isn't yet set in stone. It's quite possible his appeal will be successful and he only misses at most the first two games, which would greatly improve the Patriots' chances on the season to go OVER 10.5, and b) even if the Brady suspension remains the same, the early portion of the NFL schedule isn't too daunting for Belichick to game plan with Garoppolo successfully in order to pass the baton to Brady, when he returns, on a promising note. It's all supposition though so don't go betting the farm on it.