NFL Picks: New England Patriots Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, July 23, 2015 3:39 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 23, 2015 3:39 PM GMT

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the New England Patriots.

 


The 2015 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night, September 10th, and in an attempt to help you with your NFL picks, we are presenting daily team profiles in advance of the beginning of the season. Today we are profiling the New England Patriots, who finished 12-4 in 2014 and in first place in the AFC East before going on to win the Super Bowl.

For starters, here is a summary of the New England betting statistics over the past five seasons. Note that these stats are for regular season games only.

 

New England Patriots Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home    Away     Overall  
ATS Overall  23-16-1    22-18  45-34-1   
ATS Favorite  20-16-1  15-15  35-31-1
ATS Underdog  3-0  6-3  9-3
Avg. Margin  +12.9  +8.7  +10.8
Over – Under  28-12  25-15  53-27
Avg. Total Score    52.3  51.2  51.2

 

Many times, great teams trend toward the .500 mark ATS as the oddsmakers adjust their lines, but the Patriots have somehow remained undervalued with their 45-34-1 overall ATS mark the last five years and that have been almost automatic as underdogs at 9-3. Also, New England has been one of the most ‘over’ friendly teams in football, especially at home where it has hit at a 70.0 percent clip.
Key Trend: The ‘over’ is 20-5, 80.0 percent in New England conference home games when coming off of an ‘over’

Next we look at the Patriots’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

 

2014 New England Patriots Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  30.3  1st  19.7  8th
Rushing  103.8  19th  107.9  13th
Yds. Per Rush    3.8  25th  4.1  14th
Passing  266.8  8th  236.3  16th
Yds Per Pass  6.8  16th  6.7  16th
Total Yards  370.6  10th  344.2  13th
Yds. Per Play  5.6  14th  5.6  15th

 

If you like consistency, then you will love the fact that the Patriots finished 12-4 for the third straight season last year. This time however, they culminated their season by defeating the Seattle Seahawks 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX, a championship sealed when Malcolm Butler intercepted a Russell Wilson pass on a second and goal play from the one-yard line with 20 seconds left.

Up next, we take a look at various New England Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.

 

2015 New England Patriots NFL Futures

   5 Dimes    Bookmaker    Bovada    Heritage  
Super Bowl Odds    +1000  +906  +1000  +875
AFC Conf. Odds  +390  +371  +450  +200
AFC East Odds  -142  -177  -150  -165
Win Total  10 ov-190    OFF  10½  ov-125    10 ov-125  

 

Not surprisingly, the Patriots are heavy odds-on favorites to repeat as AFC East Champions, and that is even with Tom Brady probably suspended to begin the season, although the league has yet to rule on his appeal of a four-game suspension. That uncertainty is why the New England win total is currently off the board at Bookmaker.

 

New England Patriots Key Additions
The most notable addition in terms of expected playing time could be running back Travaris Cadet, who could serve as a very good third down back. Other New England additions are mostly of the back-up variety, including quarterback Matt Flynn, wide receiver Brandon Gibson and tight ends Scott Chandler and Fred Davis.

New England Patriots Key Losses
The Patriots did lose a lot of players from the Super Bowl Championship team, although only one key loss was on offense in the form of Shane Vereen. The defense could be in trouble this season though after losing nose tackle Vince Wilfork and the top three cornerbacks from a year ago in Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington.

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