The Patriots are one of the fan favorites to win the titles next season, and the NFL odds reflect that. New England lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens in the AFC Title game, and now they have reloaded through free agency and the draft to try and make a run.
Some experts see this as the best team the Patriots have had since 2008, but will this season end in similar fashion, like it has so many times since Tom Brady’s last Super Bowl almost a decade ago?
Super Bowl Odds (+700)
The Pats are either the favorites or the slight second favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII, but no matter how you look at it, this team is pretty talented. I see them pretty adequately priced for the Super Bowl, but then again they have favorites to win it all several times in the last eight or nine seasons, and look how well those turned out.
AFC Odds (+300)
This is definitely overpriced for a team that hasn’t won the AFC is a long time. Sure they have a strong team, but their draft wasn’t overwhelming by any means. Although they did retain most of the guys they wanted to win free agency, I still don’t believe that they are worth of the price tag they have been given to win the conference.
Even at +300, depending on which of the online sportsbooks you use, the Patriots are not even the favorites to take the AFC crown. At bet365 for instance, the Broncos have slightly better odds to win it at +275. With the AFC looking like maybe a three team race, I don’t see much value for our NFL picks at this point.
While the NFL Divisional odds are not quite out yet, let’s be honest, the Patriots are probably going to be -2000 at least in the AFC East. That division is so bad the Pats could probably play their backups with Tom Brady and probably still win the division. Although the Dolphins are MUCH improved, they are a 2-3 year project.
All in all, the Pats have too much hype and are overvalued on almost every occasion in the offseason future odds. I am one of the thinkers that this is the best Patriots team in four or five years, and I also think they might be as good or better than last season.
The AFC is a shallow conference this season, so really it might come down to a Broncos vs. Patriots showdown, but a lot of people picked that to happen last season too. While there might be a dark horse team or two in the AFC that could topple one or both like the Ravens did last season, I sincerely doubt it.
I’m selling on the Patriots as it stands now. One or more of either the Patriots, 49ers or Broncos are going to lose a lot of people money on a game to game basis for being overvalued in the NFL game odds this season, and it just might be New England. They were 9-7 ATS last season in the regular season, and they just might be a fade come September if the hype is too great.