NFL Picks: New England Patriots AFC East Divisional Future Odds

Jordan Sharp

Monday, May 20, 2013 7:09 PM UTC

Monday, May. 20, 2013 7:09 PM UTC

The New England Patriots might look strong in the Super Bowl race, but find out why we believe that NFL odds makers have overvalued the Pats and their shots of winning the AFC East.


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The divisional odds for the AFC East are out and ready for action over the last few weeks and while I am seeing some value in certain NFL divisional future odds, the Patriots don’t happen to be one of those teams. They are clear favorites to win the division this offseason at -600 at LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, and with how bad the other three teams in this division are, the sportsbooks have chalked up the Pats enough to where I don’t think anyone can touch them.

Review our New England Patriots Super Bowl Futures article.

Now if you are one of those chalk lovers that can’t help themselves when you see a “lock,” like this, let me remind you of a few things before placing your NFL picks. Firstly, nothing is a lock in the NFL, and the Patriots and the people betting them to win the division should remember that. If you don’t, do a quick Internet search for the Patriots and what happened to them in both 2007 and 2008 seasons. 

However the only thing that could take out the Patriots is probably another dose of Tom Brady going down with and injury, because I really don’t see the Pats losing to any team in their division. But with the NFL as it is, the rate of return for your investment has too much risk and very, very little reward. 

The Patriots aren’t without concern however, and only a few things have to go wrong for them to become in danger of losing the division, probably to Miami. We are already well aware of the loss of Wes Welker to the Broncos, and even though Danny Amendola will be a nice replacement for him, his injury history is a bit of a concern.

On top of Amendola, the injury history of other Patriots pass catchers is even more concerning. Rob Gronkowski is going through his 4th surgery to heel up his forearm, and Aaron Hernandez is also not known for being the most resilient player in the NFL either. All it would take is for a couple of these key offensive weapons to miss some extended time together, and things could unravel in Boston faster than most people think.

The Pats have been improving themselves all over the field this offseason, especially on defense, but all in all a $100 return on a $600 investment to win the division is much to risky, even for the most seasoned of chalk boys out there. 

There are much better odds in them winning the Super Bowl, the AFC or even their Week 1 matchup with the Bills, as the Pats are -7 favorites. It will be another month before we start to talk about the Patriots Week 1 NFL Odds, but seeing as they have little divisional future NFL odds value, I can already say that even though they are on the road in Buffalo, I like the Pats laying seven points in Week 1. 

Take a look at my bet on multiple teams in the NFL Super Bowl odds, but stay away from all the chalk and possible injuries with the Pats to win the division. 

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