NFL Picks: Motivated Lions (+1) Will Keep Their Momentum Going vs. Raiders

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 20, 2015 7:43 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 7:43 PM GMT

In this article we look at Sunday's game between the Oakland Raiders and the Detroit Lions to provide our Lone Ranger NFL pick of the week.

Oakland Raiders (-1) vs. Detroit Lions 1:00 EST
The Oakland Raiders traverse three time zones east to face off with the Detroit Lions at 1 PM eastern on Sunday. It is the fourth time in 11 weeks they have been asked to come east. They stand 1-2 SU in those contests, beating only Cleveland in week 3, the first of those trips. And even though the Raiders have lost back to back games, the public still greatly prefers QB Carr and the passing attack against a Detroit Lions team whose win over the Green Bay Packers, a team to whom they had lost 24 consecutive times in Green Bay, is considered a fluke. Let’s go inside the thinking to see why only you, I, and the LONE RANGER are lining up with the Lions this week, and cash our tenth ticket in 11 weeks of NFL action with this play.

 

Oakland Raiders
In the last two weeks, Oakland has lost to Pittsburgh and Minnesota, a pair of teams who could beat them at the point of attack. In fact, last week Minnesota outrushed Oakland 263-84 and profited from a +2 net turnover margin in the 30-14 victory. This week, however, the public sees them on more comfortable turf, against a team who allows 70% pass completions, 29 PPG, and 384 YPG. That should fit the Raiders’ profile perfectly, as QB Carr is completing 65% of his passes, and the Raiders are averaging 272 PYPG.

 

Detroit Lions
The Lions did indeed pull the miracle upset in our Lone Ranger pick of the week last week, winning 18-16 at Green Bay, a site where they had not succeeded in 24 tries. The end game was a bit fortunate, as it was more about Green Bay errors rather than positive plays made by the Lions. There are few positives in the Detroit statistical profile, even with that victory. It is yet another reason why the public is loath to back a 2-7 SU ATS team following a rare victory. Considering the fact that the Lions are 0-4 ATS at home with 3 losses by 12, 25, and 9 points is yet another reason why the public is shying away from the Big Cats. Time for us to step in with a great situational play, with the realization that late season homers off upset wins are quality plays against visitors who lost their previous game as favorite.

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me with my NFL pick on the Detroit Lions as the Lone Ranger pick of the week moves to 10-1 ATS.

NFL Picks: Lions +1 at Bovada

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