NFL Picks: Most Passing Yards Props

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, July 3, 2014 2:49 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 3, 2014 2:49 PM UTC

In 2013 Peyton Manning blew everyone out of the water in passing yards, breaking the single season record with 5477 yards. This season, however, I think there could be a new champion, and the NFL Odds are ripe with value, if that is truly the case.

Drew Brees (+190)
Drew Brees is right behind Peyton Manning who is priced in at +170 at Bet365. The Saints’ quarterback finished right behind Manning last season, and he could be in line for a big season in 2014. Even though Jimmy Graham’s contract disputes are a concern, there is a lot to get excited about with the Saints offense this season. Assuming Graham is in uniform, and Marcus Colston is healthy and productive, Brees has a very good shot at leading the league in passing yards.

Brees also had the disadvantage of being sacked 19 times more than Manning last season which would have surely added to his totals a season ago. However in 2014, if the Saints’ offensive line and Brees can limit the amount of times he hits the deck, I expect a huge season. Kenny Stills is going to be a productive member of the WR core again this season, and rookie Brandin Cooks has an outside chance of eclipsing what Stills did as a rookie last season. Combine all of that with the pass catching ability of Pierre Thomas in the backfield, and you have a recipe for Brees to lead the league in passing for the third time in four seasons.

Aaron Rodgers (+800)
Aaron Rodgers is probably the only other quarterback I would include in this discussion outside of Manning of course. The assumingly healthy trio of Rodgers, Manning and Brees will certainly be the three best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and Rodgers is particularly undervalued if that’s the case. Rodgers was on pace for around 4500 yards which would have put him in the top five last season if he’d have stayed healthy. Now that he has a capable running back, teams aren’t going to be able to drop back as many defenders against the Packers’ offense.

Green Bay lost James Jones this offseason but I don’t think that hurts Rodgers’ chances enough to have him all the way at +800. Even though there is a steep drop-off between Manning and Brees to the field, Rodgers is behind Matt Stafford, which is pitiful. Green Bay’s gun slinger was on pace last year to be top five in completion percentage, passer rating, yards and touchdowns, and there is no reason to think that he won’t be battling Manning and Brees for this prop win.

Honorable Mentions
Even though I’m not giving much love to the field, I do find some interesting prices among some of the other passers. Even though they have a very small chance at winning the award for most yards, they are being incredibly undervalued in the NFL Odds.

Ben Roethlisberger (+8000)
I understand there are two sides to this argument, however Roethlisberger was 9th in the NFL in passing yards last season. Now he is 80/1 to lead the league, and behind Nick Foles and Carson Palmer in the NFL Odds from Bet365. This is some pretty harsh disrespect for a guy who has the ability to throw for 4500 yards. I understand the Steelers are much better this season and aren’t going to have to rely on Roethlisberger’s arm as much, however if they are for some reason pass happy, Big Ben could rise again.

Phillip Rivers (+2200)
Rivers had a rebirth year a season ago finishing 5th in the NFL in passing yards with nearly 4500. However with some doubt surrounding the receiving core in San Diego, it seems as if the NFL Odds are overvaluing him somewhat. Rivers might have to play from a deficit more this season than he did a year ago however, and as long as his young receivers (and old faithful, Antonio Gates) come through he could pressure the top guys for this prop again.

Jay Cutler (+3500)
The Bears have been one of the fastest rising teams in the NFL Future Odds, and for good reason. With Jay Cutler back healthy for the Bears, this offense could lead the league in several categories. Cutler has four dynamic pass catchers at his disposal, and even without him last season, the two Bears’ receivers were both inside the top 11 in the league in receiving yards.  Cutler was another guy on pace for a great season before getting hurt, and in that division, passing is going to be plentiful. Don’t sleep on the Bears this season. 

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