We have a lot of NFL news, transactions and drafting to take care of before this means much, but value can be found before anything happens. In fact normally there is value before the draft and free agency, but there are also some teams that are way overvalued. While I think the top five or six teams are appropriately priced to win the Super Bowl, there are a few that I have identified as pretty overvalued. Ill say it again, a lot can change between now and September, but as it stands now let’s look at two or three of the teams you need to stay away from with your NFL picks.
New Orleans Saints 14/1
New Orleans is all over the NFL odds boards, as high as +1400 and as low as +1800 from the shops have looked at, but either way, they are a bit overvalued at Bovada, which is where you can get them at 14/1. The Saints have a lot of pieces they need to put back together from their awful season last year, and they don’t have lot of room to do it.
New Orleans is without their 2nd round pick in this year’s draft, but even worse is they have almost not money to spend this season unless they do some restructuring or some more cutting. They look to be still over the cap as of today, and with a team that needs some help on defense, that is never good. The draft could be kind to them, but with no 2nd rounder and no money, things don’t look so good.
Pittsburgh Steelers 18/1
+1800 is pretty untouchable anyway, but this number should be a lot higher. I consider the Falcons and Saints better options and they have lesser odds to them right now. I love the Steelers’ offense, but Mike Wallace is gone, and I’m not sold that they can find a guy to replace him and go across from Antonio Brown.
On top of that, this team has some holes to fill in their defense, and I’m also not sold they can fix all of those issues in one offseason. However, a bunch of Steelers have restructured their deals this offseason, giving the Steelers some room to rebuild. However, as it stands now, they are ranked way too high, and with all the restructuring, they could be setting themselves up for failure in future seasons as well.
Washington Redskins 25/1
All this crap about being ready to play football on Week 1 for Robert Griffin III is more than questionable. That would put his recovery timetable a 9 months, and I’m sorry people, but not everyone is Adrian Peterson. Look at Derrick Rose, who is 10 months removed from ACL surgery and he is still not made his Return, which was much hyped as well.The Redskins should be more like 35 or 40/1. On top of the fact that I am almost certain that RG3 won’t be ready to start the season, the Skins could also still be dealing with that salary cap penalty from the league if their case doesn’t rule in their favor. They are once again appealing in court against the league, and the Skins could be down some significant cap space after taking the “uncapped” year a bit too seriously. If the court rules against them, they will be stripped of about $17 million in cap space, making even a run at the postseason unlikely. They also don’t have their 1st round pick this season because of RG3, so don’t even think about it people.