It’s hard to believe, but the NFL regular season is coming to a close, and to close out the Week 15, I am back to release my three best NFL Picks from the bet365 prop pages. Monday’s NFL Odds are looking good, and there is value in tonight’s Saints and Bears game.
|Saints scores first -125 (best line BOL)
Bears scores first +110 (best line Bovada)
|First score a TD -200 (best line Heritage)
First score not a TD +175 (best line 5Dimes)
|Either team 3 straight scores -179 (best line SIA)
No team 3 straight scores +205 (best line Pinnacle)
|Total FGs Over 3½ +125 (best line BOL)
Total FGs Under 3½ -134 (best line Pinnacle)
Martellus Bennett O/U 65.5 receiving yards
This may seem like a lot of yards for Martellus Bennett, however I think the total is quite low, and I believe that the 'Over' could be the smartest option. For starters, Bennett’s yards total for tonight is higher than Jimmy Graham’s by one yard. That’s how much respect (or lack of recently for Graham) Bennett has been getting recently, and seeing his last two games, I think 65.5 is way too low.
Bennett has caught nearly 200 receiving yards in the Bears’ last two games, and with Brandon Marshall on the injury reserve list, Bennett almost becomes the top passing option in Chicago. Alshon Jeffery will still be there as option 1A, but Bennett should garner as many, or more short and intermediate targets tonight. He has been targeted a massive 26 times in the Bears’ last two games, so once again run, don’t walk to your computer, go to bet365, and bet the over tonight on Bennett’s receiving yards.
My Pick: Bennett OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-125)
Race to 10 points
With a large total, and two very good offenses, a lack of points tonight would be shocking. However with the NFL Odds favoring the Saints, it opens up some value with the Bears as a home underdog. But while trusting them ATS is difficult, betting on them to get out to a hot start is another thing, especially outside in Chicago, which is going to be by far the toughest game weather-wise, the Saints have played all season. Therefore, the Bears look like a nice bet to get to 10 points first, and at +105 NFL Odds, the value is there as well.
These two teams are not that far apart. They both have excellent offenses, and both of their defenses are pretty awful at times. Plus the Bears have virtually nothing left to play for other than pride, so it could make them loose tonight, which could lead to a good game. We know the Saints are going to give up points. In their last five games, the Saints have either given up the first score of the game, they lost the race to 10 points, or in some of them, they did both. Look for them to dig a hole for themselves tonight against Chicago.
My Pick: Bears 1st to 10 points (+105)
Team to make first score
This is obviously more of a coin flip bet, but if you read my play above, a lot of the same thinking goes into this NFL pick. The Saints have given up the first score of the game in four of their last five games, and since their bye week, they have given up the first score of the game in five of their eight games.
Now on the road in the elements in Chicago, the Saints may get out to a slow start here. If that’s the case, and if the Bears can get their heads on straight, they should have no problem getting out to a quick start at home against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. At +100 in the NFL Odds, the value is there on the Bears to get the first points on the board.
My Pick: Bears score first (+100)