NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Prop Betting Picks

Jordan Sharp

Monday, October 21, 2013 12:50 PM GMT

Week 7 of the season is almost in the books, and while it was a horrible week of injuries, it wasn’t bad for our wallets.

Follow our complete coverage of the Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football game! 

After getting slightly back on track in Week 7, let’s see if we can cap it off with a couple of Monday prop picks. All of these NFL odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook, and for some reason, I’m in a kicking mood tonight.

O/U 3.5 Field Goals

Sports betting-wise, we cashed this prop back last week and I am at it again with the Giants and the Vikings. Blair Walsh and Josh Brown are two of the best kickers in the NFL one a young guy, and the other a veteran. While both of these offenses have been stagnant compared to their potential, I think tonight may be an evening where the offense ramps up, and the field goals are plentiful.

The insertion of Josh Freeman for the Vikings should make their offense a lot better, but he can’t learn everything in 10 days. Even though the Giants’ defense isn’t that great, neither is Freeman. Although he is a nice upgrade from the former Minnesota QB combo, his lack of knowledge of the offense is going to make the Vikings somewhat predictable in this game. The Giants will be keyed into Adrian Peterson even more with Freeman under center. I expect AP to have close to 30 touches in this game, and that likely means a conservative game plan for Lesley Frazier. He is going the take three points when it is given to him tonight, especially on the road.

The Giants on the other hand haven’t been kicking too many field goals recently, but at least they have been scoring. The Giants have six touchdowns in their last two games, and although Brown doesn’t have and field goal attempts during those two games, I could see the Vikings’ pass rush disrupting Eli Manning’s line enough where the Giants have to kick some field goals after perhaps a long pass. Currently, the Giants have a 61% red zone TD efficiency rate, while the Vikings are only 50% on the season.

NFL Pick: Bet the OVER 3.5 Field Goals (+110)

 

O/U 10 Punts

The punting game will hopefully be the opposite of the field goal game tonight. Ten punts is the total tonight and through their five games this season, Minnesota has punted the ball only 23 times, (I incorrectly stated it was 19 in a previous video) which is ranked 30th in the NFL. Even if they punt it four times tonight which is right around their average for the season, they will still be no higher than 25th in the NFL in total punts.

The Giants have had to punt a lot more than the Vikings, but they are still in the bottom half of the league in it despite their horrible start. Last week against the Bears’ defense, the Giants only punted three times. Minnesota’s defense is much worse than Chicago’s with the exception of maybe their run defense, and I fully expect both teams to have plenty of time spent in the opposing team’s territory.

Freeman should really help the Vikings’ offense as a whole, and while it might not free up any new holes for Peterson in the short term, it might help him and the rest of the Vikings out in the long term. While I don’t expect it to click right away early in this game, I think Peterson and Freeman can lead the Vikings to score some on the weak Giants defense, keeping Chris Kluwe off the field. For your NFL picks , take the under with this prop bet. I expect about only eight or nine punts tonight.

NFL Pick: Bet the UNDER 10 Punts (-115)

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Check out SportsbookReview's report on Sports betting websites with the best prices on 2013 NFL Futures!

SBR NFL Feature

October 21, 2013

Jason Lake

 

NFL Betting: Vikings vs. Giants Total Pick

 

One team’s quarterback has yet to establish a meaningful relationship with his receivers. The other team has Josh Freeman. But the Week 7 NFL lines suggest we’ll see some scoring on Monday night.5

 

 

Jason’s record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to October 20 inclusive:

19-17-1 ATS

1-1 ML (+0.71 units)

3-5 Totals

 

It’s all right: Some of my best friends are New York Giants fans. And they’re not feeling too sorry for themselves overall, what with the two Super Bowl wins in the last six years and everything. But the G-Men are definitely making people feel sour these days at 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. So let’s take a break from worrying about the Giants and the spread. How will they do against the total this Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they host the Minnesota Vikings?

 

Short Sharp Shock

 

Our Week 7 NFL betting lines have a fairly run-of-the-mill total of 47.5 points up on the Monday Night Football board. And according to our consensus reports, the ‘Over’ has been getting roughly two-thirds support since the open. Hidden in those numbers, however, was an early boost for the ‘Under’ that knocked the total as low as 46 points before coming back up later in the week. Possibly a burst of sharp action from some people with deep pockets.

 

Casual bettors are usually happy to pound the ‘Over’ on just about any matchup, but they’ll be even happier to know that the Vikings have the ‘Over’ at a perfect 5-0, while the Giants have seen some pretty big scores themselves at 4-2. So why would anyone bet the ‘Under’ this week? Let me introduce you to a man named Josh.

 

Take Your Ritalin

 

The Vikings aren’t wasting any time putting Josh Freeman under center. He was signed on Oct. 6; 10 days later, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers refugee was named the starter for Monday’s matchup with the Giants. That’s not a lot of time to pick up a team’s playbook. The original plan was reportedly to give Freeman two weeks to learn the offense, but the timetable was moved up after Minnesota’s 35-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers (+2.5 away).

 

But how much of a difference can Freeman make to this offense? Matt Cassel hasn’t been stellar since replacing the injured Christian Ponder, but Cassel’s plus-21 passing DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) was better than Miami’s Ryan Tannehill (plus-6) through Week 6. Freeman posted minus-67 passing DYAR for the Buccaneers before his release. He’s got some work to do.

 

Hot Potato

 

Even if the Minnesota playbook is simplified to “Hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson,” that’s not going to be an instant winner. Peterson has been held out of practice for most of the week, ostensibly with a hamstring injury, and he’s down from 6.0 yards per carry last year to 4.7 yards. It won’t help the Viking cause if LT Ryan Kalil (back) can’t play at full capacity, either.

 

We’ve also seen the G-Men have their issues on offense, most clearly illustrated by QB Eli Manning’s league-leading 15 interceptions. The main reason both these teams have made the ‘Over’ such a profitable pick is on the other side of the ball; New York is ranked No. 24 in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders, with Minnesota at No. 27. Fitting, because no team has scored fewer than 27 points against the Vikings (or the Giants) this year.

 

I’ll be taking the ‘Under’ anyway. New York has faced some tough offenses this season, none tougher than the Denver Broncos. Playing a Minnesota team that’s breaking in a new quarterback should be just the tonic the Big Blue defense needs. Maybe that and a case of Maker’s Mark.

 

 

NFL Pick: Take ‘Under’ 47.5 at Will Hill

SBR NFL Feature

October 21, 2013

Jason Lake

 

NFL Betting: Vikings vs. Giants Total Pick

 

One team’s quarterback has yet to establish a meaningful relationship with his receivers. The other team has Josh Freeman. But the Week 7 NFL lines suggest we’ll see some scoring on Monday night.5

 

 

Jason’s record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to October 20 inclusive:

19-17-1 ATS

1-1 ML (+0.71 units)

3-5 Totals

 

It’s all right: Some of my best friends are New York Giants fans. And they’re not feeling too sorry for themselves overall, what with the two Super Bowl wins in the last six years and everything. But the G-Men are definitely making people feel sour these days at 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. So let’s take a break from worrying about the Giants and the spread. How will they do against the total this Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they host the Minnesota Vikings?

 

Short Sharp Shock

 

Our Week 7 NFL betting lines have a fairly run-of-the-mill total of 47.5 points up on the Monday Night Football board. And according to our consensus reports, the ‘Over’ has been getting roughly two-thirds support since the open. Hidden in those numbers, however, was an early boost for the ‘Under’ that knocked the total as low as 46 points before coming back up later in the week. Possibly a burst of sharp action from some people with deep pockets.

 

Casual bettors are usually happy to pound the ‘Over’ on just about any matchup, but they’ll be even happier to know that the Vikings have the ‘Over’ at a perfect 5-0, while the Giants have seen some pretty big scores themselves at 4-2. So why would anyone bet the ‘Under’ this week? Let me introduce you to a man named Josh.

 

Take Your Ritalin

 

The Vikings aren’t wasting any time putting Josh Freeman under center. He was signed on Oct. 6; 10 days later, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers refugee was named the starter for Monday’s matchup with the Giants. That’s not a lot of time to pick up a team’s playbook. The original plan was reportedly to give Freeman two weeks to learn the offense, but the timetable was moved up after Minnesota’s 35-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers (+2.5 away).

 

But how much of a difference can Freeman make to this offense? Matt Cassel hasn’t been stellar since replacing the injured Christian Ponder, but Cassel’s plus-21 passing DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) was better than Miami’s Ryan Tannehill (plus-6) through Week 6. Freeman posted minus-67 passing DYAR for the Buccaneers before his release. He’s got some work to do.

 

Hot Potato

 

Even if the Minnesota playbook is simplified to “Hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson,” that’s not going to be an instant winner. Peterson has been held out of practice for most of the week, ostensibly with a hamstring injury, and he’s down from 6.0 yards per carry last year to 4.7 yards. It won’t help the Viking cause if LT Ryan Kalil (back) can’t play at full capacity, either.

 

We’ve also seen the G-Men have their issues on offense, most clearly illustrated by QB Eli Manning’s league-leading 15 interceptions. The main reason both these teams have made the ‘Over’ such a profitable pick is on the other side of the ball; New York is ranked No. 24 in defensive efficiency at Football Outsiders, with Minnesota at No. 27. Fitting, because no team has scored fewer than 27 points against the Vikings (or the Giants) this year.

 

I’ll be taking the ‘Under’ anyway. New York has faced some tough offenses this season, none tougher than the Denver Broncos. Playing a Minnesota team that’s breaking in a new quarterback should be just the tonic the Big Blue defense needs. Maybe that and a case of Maker’s Mark.

 

 

NFL Pick: Take ‘Under’ 47.5 at Will Hill