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While the spread and total of this game are inviting, we should still find ways to diversify our NFL picks for Monday Night Football, and I have two prop picks that I really like for this game. All of these NFL odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook.
Jason Snelling has been one of the two tailbacks filling in for the Falcons while Steven Jackson has been out, and along with Jaquizz Rodgers, I think both are doing a much better job that anyone expected. Either way, it hasn’t been good enough so far, as the Falcons have fallen to 1-3 SU on the season.
However Rodgers and Snelling are very close when it comes to snaps and actual ability, and that is why I am going with Snelling’s total yards tonight instead of Rodgers. Rodgers’ total for yards in this game is 72, but with Snelling’s down to 47.5, and I think there is enough value to take a stab at the over.
Before last week, Snelling had two straight weeks where he almost had 60 and 100 yards of total offense by himself respectfully, and even with the Jets’ having a great defense, there is a chance he could catch four or five passes in this game. Along with the carries he’ll receive, there is a great shot he’ll have over 47 yards of offense to his name by game’s end. Plus, if the Falcons grab a big lead, that’s just going to mean more rushing attempts for the veteran, Snelling. Take the over.
NFL Pick: Jason Snelling ‘Over’ 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (-125)
The Jets have a team total of 17.5 in this one, and with the shaky Falcons defense going up against them, I think the Jets’ offense may be slightly undervalued in this team total. Even though the NFL odds of them crapping the bed in this game are higher than most teams, the Jets have most of their offense back for this game. With the exception of Santonio Holmes, most of the injured Jets will play tonight, including Stephen Hill, who was cleared from his concussion last week.
The Jets are going to try and control the ball as much as they can in this game, but in the end, they are likely to fall behind in this one. If they fall behind enough, the Falcons’ already soft defense will fall into prevent defense, giving the Jets plenty of open spaces to score some more points in this one.
The Falcons are giving up nearly 400 yards of total offense per game through four games this season, and even though two of those games were against the Saints and Patriots, the other two were against the Dolphins and Rams, two teams with far from prolific offenses, and they still tore them up. The Rams have been struggling on offense all season, but they still put up 24 points and nearly 400 yards of total offense in Week 2. Just like the Jets this week, the Rams were playing in Atlanta. I think New York’s offense is just as good (or bad depending on how you look at it) as St. Louis’, so take the over here on Monday night for my sports betting picks.
NFL Pick: Jets TT ‘Over’ 17.5
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