An NFC North divisional battle is set to finish off Week 9 of the NFL season, and it should be a better than expected game. Even with Jay Cutler out for this game, I think we can find some value in prop betting this Monday night game. These NFL Odds are all from Bet365 sportsbook.
Even with Josh McCown starting this game for the Bears, I think there could be some undervaluing of the Bears’ skill players. One big instance of that is the touchdown price of Bears’ tight end, Martellus Bennett. Bennett is priced at +220 to score a touchdown, and after a couple straight weeks of hitting on a TD prop, I am going for it again with Bennett.
McCown could find Bennett as his favorite target in this game. The Packers will try and do everything they can to stop Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte, and Bennett will benefit from the heat placed on both of his teammates. The Packers have been bad against tight ends so far this season, giving up five touchdowns in seven games to tight ends.
Not only are the Packers bad at defending the tight end, but they also have a couple of key linebackers either missing, or looking questionable for this game. If the black unicorn is covered by back up linebackers and even the Packers’ safeties, he will find the end zone. The price is just too good to pass up on such an intriguing matchup.
My Pick: Martellus Bennett TD Scored (+220)
Speaking of the Bears starting quarterback, McCown has a completion total of 22.5 for this game against the Packers, and if Chicago is playing from behind, you can bet that Marc Trestman is going to let it fly. McCown isn’t some rookie back up, he has almost a couple of seasons worth of NFL starts in his entire career, and he played well two weeks ago when he spelled Cutler.
McCown got about 2 ½ quarters of work in Washington two weeks ago, and he completed 14 passes in that span. Now at 22.5 completions this week, I think the over is the play, and it definitely has some value at -105.
The Bears have had an extra week of practice as well, and coming off of their bye, I think McCown has probably clicked some with his skill players, and with Green Bay’s beatable secondary, the Bears’ QB should, and will throw a lot this week. I’m placing my NFL picks on the 'Over'.
My Pick: Josh McCown ‘Over’ 22.5 completions
With a total of 51 in the NFL Odds, you have to think this game will be higher scoring. With a field goal total of 3.5, I think the price on the over warrants a shot here as well. At +110, four or more field goals looks like great value.
With McCown in the game for the Bears, you have to think he will be at least a slight downgrade from Cutler, and with the Bears playing shaky on defense, I see plenty of red zone chances here for the Packers. Green Bay is going to give up points as well, and both kickers in this game have good track records this season. I could also see the Packers possibly blowing out the Bears, which would warrant some conservative field goal play from Green Bay.My Pick: ‘Over’ 3.5 Field Goals (+110)