We have had an up and down week when it comes to our NFL prop betting picks. We started the week on Thursday with a bang, but we fizzled out this weekend. Luckily my other bets covered most of the losses, so let’s see if we can regain the small amount of ground we lost this week with some prop options to add to your NFL picks on Monday night. All of these NFL Odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook.
The Saints have demoted Mark Ingram from his 2 yards per carry role in the New Orleans Saints offense, and in steps the solid veteran, Pierre Thomas. Thomas is already the teams' third down back and now takes the role of goal line back as well. With that role, he should be able to find the endzone some this season, and I think we see him fall in there tonight.
The Saints should be able to move the ball easily on the Dolphins, who (even though they have a good defense) are underperforming this season and on the road this week. If the Saints get a first and goal situation, after they have tried to get the ball to Jimmy Graham, I could easily see Thomas getting some red zone rushing attempts or targets.
The Dolphins have given up a touchdown to the opposing running back in two straight weeks now, and I think it happens for a third straight on Monday evening. New Orleans should find themselves in the red zone plenty in this one, and if the Fins cover up the likes of Graham, Marcus Colston and Darren Sproles, Thomas will be there to clean it up and get a score.
My Pick: Pierre Thomas (+110)
Read our NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Saints Bettig the Total for a free play on the Over/Under
For both teams, long receptions may be tried many times, but I doubt they are too successful. Enter Brian Hartline, the #2 receiver for the Dolphins, who has been playing very well under Coach Philbin this season. The Fins’ passing attack is infinitely better than it was a season ago, and even though I think they could put some points on the board in this one, I don’t think it’s going to be because of big hits downfield to Hartline.
Mike Wallace would be the candidate to beat the Saints deep in this game, but Hartline is not that kind of player. Even though he had a nice 34-yard touchdown reception in Week 1 against the Browns, this is the Browns we are talking about. Hartline is a slot receiver, and the shots taken to him 30 yards down the field are few and far between.
With NFL odds offering a total of 29.5, I think his longest reception will fall under 30 yards for this one. The New Orleans secondary is pretty good so far this season. They have given up only two receptions this season that were over 30 yards, and even though Hartline is talented enough to do it, I see him more as the underneath guy in this game. The Saints will be focused on Wallace not beating them deep, and I think that will lead to Hartline getting open in the middle of the field. It’s a good thing he isn’t much of a run after the catch guy, or else this may not be a very good pick. Hartline only has 49 yards running after the catch through the first three games this year, which is an average of only 2.72 yards after each reception. Take the under.
My Pick: Hartline’s longest reception ‘Under’ 29.5 yards (-115)
Check out our NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Saints ATS Picks for more betting options.