We had another great weekend of NFL football, and what better way to cap it all off with than some prop betting options for your NFL picks Monday night. The NFL Odds have the Raiders as huge +15 underdogs in this game, so finding other value is crucial for tonight, and I think I have some. All of the following NFL Odds are courtesy of Bet365.
O/U 5.5 Touchdowns scored
A big story this season has been Peyton Manning’s record start, and how he is well on pace to break Tom Brady’s single-season touchdown record. However tonight he goes up against a pretty good and very undervalued defense of the Oakland Raiders, and another four or five touchdowns from Manning seems a little farfetched. Charles Woodson is leading a very good secondary in Oakland this season, and along with Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins, the Raiders have a lot going for them.
Not only is the Raiders’ secondary pretty good, but their pass rush and run defense are both good as well. Combine that with the Broncos’ defense being solid, and the Raiders’ offense leaving much to be desired, and I think we could see less than six touchdowns. Assuming the Broncos get three or four, and the Raiders get only one or two, this could offer solid value for your sports picks, in what could be a lower scoring game in Denver.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 5.5 (-110)
Take a look at our NFL Picks: Raiders vs. Broncos Opening Odds Report
Raiders Team Total (16.5)
Despite having immense offensive line problems, the Raiders are doing very well this season rushing the football. The Broncos will obviously have something to say about that in this game, but the Raiders’ only chance of winning this game on the road will be to run the ball a lot. Keeping Manning and the Broncos on the sideline might be the only way the silver and black can keep it close in this game.
That being said, I think Oakland is due for a dud. Their offense cannot play catch up with the Broncos. I could very easily see a bunch of field goals from the Raiders in this game because through two games, the Raiders have a red zone efficiency of only 37%. If the Broncos defense can play up to their potential in this game, the Raiders won’t see 17 points.
Find our Monday Night ATS pick here: NFL Picks: Raiders vs. Broncos Betting the Spread
First score of the game
I’ve never done this prop before, but I think there may be some value in it this week at Bet365. A touchdown has little value at -210, but the NFL odds on a field goal being the first score of the game is at +160, and I think there is just enough value to take a bite. As I mentioned above, the Raiders and Broncos both have excellent defenses. Oakland’s red zone efficiency makes them a great candidate to kick a field goal early, especially if they win the toss and elect to receive the opening kickoff.
Manning is obviously a beast in the red zone, but the Raiders are the toughest defense the Broncos have played so far this season. Even Manning’s 80% red zone efficiency rating can be bested, and a field goal seems logical after these defenses have gotten an extra day to rest and preparation.
My Pick: Field Goal (+160)
Looking to plat the total? Read our NFL Picks: Raiders vs. Broncos Over/Under