It’s the finale of Week 14, and with a big NFC showdown here on Monday Night Football, I have three of my favorite NFL Odds from the bet365 prop pages. These NFL Picks hold some nice value tonight, and I am releasing them to you for free!
|Falcons scores first +190 (best line: SIA)
Packers scores first -190 (best line: 5Dimes)
|1st turnover is a fumble +130 (best line: 5Dimes)
1st turnover an int. / no turnovr -160 (best line: Heritage)
|Score in first 7:30 -230 (best line: Bovada)
No score in first 7:30 +201 (best line: Pinnacle)
|Total FGs Over 3½ +116 (best line: Pinnacle)
Total FGs Under 3½ -135 (best line: 5Dimes)
Jordy Nelson O/U 95.5 receiving yards
Jordy Nelson has taken another step this season, and after taking on more of the offense, Nelson has proven his worth as one of the best receivers in football. Now on Monday Night Football, he has a yards total of less than 100 yards, and I am all in on the over. Nelson is one of the best deep threats in the NFL, and even though he hasn’t been great over the last two weeks, he scored last week, and he has five games this season of 100 yards or more.
Going up against the Falcons should give him his 6th 100-yard game. The Falcons have given up the second most yards to opposing receivers this year, and while the Packers do have plenty of options, it only takes one big catch from Nelson to get the over to cash in this game. Look for Nelson to get at least 10 targets in this game, and with him averaging nearly 10 yards per target and 16 yards per catch, the over is the play.
My NFL Pick: Nelson OVER 95.5 receiving yards (-120)
Team to win both halves
The Packers are huge favorites in this game against the Falcons, and while they may not cover the lofty spread, their chances of winning both halves is as good or better than the spread. Plus, the NFL Odds have the Packers to win both halves at -110, which is a great value. The Falcons’ defense is going to give up a ton of points tonight, and as long as the Packers’ secondary can shut down the Falcons’ passing game, this may indeed me a blowout. However the Packers are playing on a different level right now, and on the road the Falcons have not been the best team. Add that to the fact that it is going to be cold and very loud, and you have a nice recipe for the Packers to score more points than the Falcons in both halves.
My NFL Pick: Packers (-110)
Matt Ryan O/U 41.5 pass attempts
This is one of my favorite props of the night, because at 41.5 pass attempts, I see Matt Ryan going well over that tonight. Playing with that defense for the last three years has really put Ryan in a position to throw the ball a lot in the second half, and if the NFL Odds are to be believed tonight, he is going to need to throw the ball during the first and second half if they want to keep up with the Packers. The over has some juice in this one at -125, but I see it as one of the best wagers of the night.
Ryan has touched to exceeded 41 pass attempts in three straight games dating back to Week 11, and in eight games this year he has thrown at least 41 pass attempts. I would not be surprised to see Ryan throw the ball 45 times tonight, and even though the Falcons will want to run the ball on the Packers defense, the likely don’t have the bodies to do it. Take the over and add it to your NFL Picks.
My NFL Pick: Ryan OVER 41.5 pass attempts (-125)