It was a down week for us in our NFL Picks, but we have one last chance to salvage some of our week here on Monday Night Football. What better way than with Props on Broncos/Bengals?
Emmanuel Sanders O/U 72.5 receiving yards
Make sure you double check Emmanuel Sanders’ status before the game, because he did go the week without practicing, but that is one of the main reasons the under looks so good here. With Sanders and some of their other receiving weapons banged up, the Broncos have shifted to more of a run first offense. This is also due to how marginal Peyton Manning has looked over the last few weeks. The Broncos have really been relying on CJ Anderson and the run game, and it has hurt Manning and the passing offenses’ numbers. With Sanders still not 100%, and with the Broncos running the ball so much, Sanders should once again fall under his yards total. In the Broncos’ last two games, Sanders has only caught seven passes for just 56 and 53 yards respectfully. Even though it’s just an illness that Sanders is dealing with, the Bengals defense at home should be enough to limit him.
Free NFL Props Pick: Sanders UNDER 72.5 receiving yards (-130)
Andy Dalton O/U 227.5 passing yards
This prop NFL pick almost puts me in physical pain, but with the Broncos’ passing game beatable, and considering this game is at home, I have to think the Bengals’ offense is going to throw the ball plenty in this game. If the Broncos are able to open it up this week and find their passing game against the Bengals, it would make this prop even more valuable, because the Bengals are going to have to throw the ball 35-40 times to win this game. They want to run the ball, but they would be playing right into the hands of the Broncos if they did that. Denver’s run defense has been solid all season, and they are allowing the league’s second best rushing defense total, at only 71.6 yards per game. On top of all of this, despite my less than stellar feelings towards Dalton as a quarterback, at home this season he has been pretty good. He is averaging about 233 yards passing per game at home, and that is including two duds of 169 yards against the Titans earlier in the year, and that dud against the Browns at home where he threw for 86 yards. If Dalton had thrown for 200 passing yards in those two games, he would be averaging well over 250 passing yards per game at home.
Free NFL Props Pick: Dalton OVER 227.5 passing yards (-115)
Alternate Point Spread
The NFL Odds have the Broncos as -3 ½ road favorites this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been playing much better on the defensive end from earlier in the season, but will it be enough to cover against Denver? I don’t think so. The Bengals are only 2-3-1 ATS this season as home favorites, while the Broncos are 3-2 ATS as road favorites. If the Broncos can get their passing game back, along with their run game which has been carrying them for a few weeks, this game will be no contest by the end of the third quarter. This is why I think the Broncos’ alternative point spread is worth looking at this week. You could get +160 odds for the Broncos at -7 this week, and I am taking a stab as my long shot for Monday.
Free NFL Props Pick: Alternative point spread: Broncos -7 (+160)
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